- Justin Rose leads by four strokes after the first round of the 2021 Masters
- Just twelve golfers shot under par in very difficult conditions during Thursday’s opening day
- See the updated odds at Augusta National below for Friday’s second round within the story below
Through seven holes on Thursday, Justin Rose had a ho-hum round going, as he was two-over par, without a birdie on his card. What he did after that was remarkable, posting an eagle and seven birdies to race past the leaders into top spot by four strokes.
Coming into the week, Rose had been struggling with his game and was resting due to a back injury, having not played since withdrawing from last month’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was, however, such a great value bet at +10000 given his tremendous history around Augusta National, leading us to be bullish on him.
Many of the big names posted middling rounds, with pre-tournament favorite and defending champion Dustin Johnson shooting 74, Bryson DeChambeau stumbling to a 76 and Justin Thomas firing 73. Anyone well down the leaderboard will struggle to slip into the green jacket on Sunday, at least historically.
The last player outside the top-15 after round one to taste victory was Tiger Woods in 2005. Read on to see the updated Masters odds and the best bets heading into Friday’s second round.
2021 Updated Masters Odds
|Golfer||Position||Score||Odds at FanDuel|
Odds as of April 8th at 8:00pm EST
Rose Firing on All Cylinders
Justin Rose shook off an inauspicious start to tear up an incredibly difficult Augusta National course, shooting 9-under in his final eleven holes. That’s the best anyone has ever done in any round since 2004. His opening 7-under, 65, was also his best round ever at this track by two strokes.
Justin Rose: 6th career Masters round led or co-led, most of any player in Tournament history without a win.
Will wind up with about 9.5 strokes gained total vs the field; 8th time in #TheMasters history a player has beat the field scoring average by 9.5 strokes or more.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 8, 2021
Rose has now led after day one on four occasions, matching Jack Nicklaus for the most all-time. He hasn’t turned any of the opening leads into a green jacket, however.
Justin Rose’s Final Results After Holding Masters First Round Lead
|Year||First Round Lead & Finishing Position|
|2004||2 shots (T-22)|
|2021||4 shots (???)|
He has, however, posted a pair of runner-ups (including a playoff loss to Sergio Garcia in 2017), three other top-10’s and has been inside the top 25 in twelve of 15 career attempts. Though he didn’t convert those 18-hole leads, they were far earlier in his career when he wasn’t as proven.
The concern is whether his back issues flare back up, plus he hasn’t had a top-10 in his last ten PGA Tour events. (He does have a T-2 on the European Tour). His pre-event +10000 odds were super juicy, but at this low number, there really isn’t much value.
Best Live Value Picks for the Masters
- Jordan Spieth (+750): We were also big on Spieth coming into the week following his Valero Texas Open title. Managed to right the ship after a dreadful triple bogey on nine by shooting 3-under on the second nine to post a 71. This is the fifth time he’s opened the Masters with a score under par – his previous finishes were a victory, a pair of runner-ups and a third.
- Xander Schauffele (+2700): Solid odds considering Schauffele has seven career top-10’s in majors, including a T-2 at the Masters in 2019. All four of his victories have been come from behind fashion, so not being in front won’t faze him. Inside the top-20 in eight of his last ten majors. Ready to break through after five top-5’s on the campaign, including three runner-ups.
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