After three rounds of the Valspar Championship, Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns are tied at the top at -14. Both golfers made some mistakes in their third round that brought a lot of contenders back into the mix.
Max Homa was the prime beneficiary of Burns’ and Bradley’s miscues. He finds himself only one shot back after shooting a 66 on Saturday. The others who are close enough to contend are Ted Potter Jr., Abraham Ancer and Joaquin Niemann, all of whom sit at -10.
After pushing on my third-round best bet (Bradley -117 over Burns), it is only right that we carry that bet over to Sunday and double up on it. Backing Bradley in any form is a roller-coaster of emotions and will no doubt be the case again in the final round.
With that being said, I love the spot he is in going in the final round. Since we do not live in a Utopian society, it was inevitable that one of Bradley’s rounds on the weekend would feature some dismal putting — and that was Saturday. Bradley has talked all week about how he feels great with the putter and call me crazy, but I actually believe him. I think he rolls it better on Sunday.
Burns is gaining 7.2 strokes putting and while he is a very good putter, I do expect a bit of regression, especially with the tournament on the line. Although Burns has the putting advantage, Bradley is still lapping Burns in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Bradley +12.4, Burns: +6.3) and Strokes Gained: Approach (Bradley +6.9, Burns +2.0).
Bet Keegan Bradley (-122) over Sam Burns
I do like Keegan to win the Valspar Championship but there is considerable value on two super talented golfers who can make a run on Sunday. At an event where players win from behind often, both Ancer (+1800) and Niemann (+2000) make a lot of sense for a Sunday punt.