2022 NFL Playoff Props – Best Player Props to Bet for the NFL Divisional Round

  • NFL player props for the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs are now widely available at online sportsbooks
  • Matt McEwan has highlighted nine props he is betting this weekend
  • Continue reading for all the player over/unders, touchdown props, and the best player prop picks for the Divisional Round

The NFL Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs kicks off on Saturday, January 22 and runs through Sunday, January 23 with two games being played on each day. As kickoff nears, sportsbooks have released many NFL player props for the four games this weekend.

It’s the lightest slate of games we have had to deal with this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bad lines out there to pick on.

I went 3-2 on my props in Wild Card Weekend, winning 0.74 units. I’m now +6.62 units in my last 13 weeks, and have another nine picks to offer for the NFL Divisional Round. You’ll find my picks in each section below the odds tables. (You can use the links below to quickly jump to one section, if you’d prefer.)

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Joe Burrow (CIN) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 279.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125) 1.5 (Ov -180 | Un +135)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 21.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 235.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 19.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 231.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 24.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110) 264.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +165 | Un -220)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 280.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -230 | Un +170)
Tom Brady (TB) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 290.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -205)
Josh Allen (BUF) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 280.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 25.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 284.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175)

All props as of January 21.

The majority of quarterbacks left in the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs have pretty large over/unders set for their passing totals. Tom Brady has the highest passing yards over/under of the weekend, with his line set at 290.5. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Matthew Stafford all have over/unders of at least 280.5 as well.

The lowest passing total of the week is Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards over/under of 231.5. Ryan Tannehill only has him beat by four yards.

 

Unsure what all these numbers above mean? Check out our guide on how to bet props.

Best Passing Props to Bet for NFL Divisional Round

1) Tom Brady OVER 26.5 Completions (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Tom Brady has gone over 26.5 completions in each of his last three games, and five of his last seven. In total, he’s gone over in 11 of 18 games this season, and had a season-high 41 completions against LA in Week 3. Brady averages 28.5 completions per game this year, including the playoffs.

The Rams defense only allows 4.0 yards per carry, fifth-best in the NFL, but rank 22nd against the pass. They haven’t given up many completions lately, but I am crediting that to Kyler Murray not being able to operate quick-game from the pocket and a few non-passing offenses—San Francisco and Baltimore. Tom Brady is different. Year after year, Brady has shown an ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly.


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I do appreciate that Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown would be players Brady would love to have in this matchup, as they create a ton of separation underneath. But Brady has enough to work with between Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and Giovani Bernard. (Yes, I said Giovani Bernard, who is going to play the James White role.)

With Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, and Von Miller all coming after him, I suspect we’ll see the king of quick game operating on Sunday. Sportsbooks wouldn’t be listing the Buccaneers as 2.5-point favorites over the Rams if Tom Brady wasn’t more than capable of carving up a good defense underneath.

2) Joe Burrow UNDER 24.5 Completions (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

Joe Burrow completed 24 passes last weekend against the Raiders, and has gone under 24.5 completions in 11 of his 17 games. He only averages 22.9 completions per game this season (including playoffs).

The Titans have allowed the third-most completions in the NFL this season, but Derrick Henry’s return is the x-factor for me. Tennessee is going to pound away with Henry this weekend, taking a few yards per play in order to keep the explosive Bengals offense on the sideline.

Cincinnati is a big-play offense, though. So even if Tennessee is unable to kill large amounts of the clock on each drive, I foresee Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd taking big chunks at a time against a pretty weak Titans secondary. Burrow just won’t have the opportunity to complete this many passes.

This line is listed at 23.5 at FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook has 24.5, but with the under listed at -130 odds.

You can find all the player over/unders for this game in our Bengals vs Titans props article.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Joe Mixon (CIN) 16.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 85.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Derrick Henry (TEN) 79.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 93.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Elijah Mitchell (SF) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -115) 80.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 93.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Aaron Jones (GB) 12.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 52.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
AJ Dillon (GB) 9.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 40.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 52.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cam Akers (LAR) 13.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 48.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 71.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Devin Singletary (BUF) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 85.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Josh Allen (BUF) 7.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 50.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

In spite of Derrick Henry making his return from the IR, Elijah Mitchell once again has the highest over/under for rushing yards in the NFL Divisional Round. Mitchell’s line is set at 80.5, while Henry’s is 79.5.

Though Leonard Fournette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both expected to make their returns from injury this weekend, no sportsbooks have released props for either of these two yet.

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Best Rushing Props to Bet for NFL Divisional Round

1) Deebo Samuel OVER 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at Barstool Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Since Week 11, including their Wild Card game, Deebo Samuel is averaging 7.25 carries per game. Samuel has turned those carries into 47.4 rushing yards per game. He has only gone over 38.5 yards in four of those eight, but has hit the over in each of his last two.

His most recent game, San Francisco’s upset over Dallas last weekend, saw Deebo carry the ball ten times for 72 yards. I’ve said this before and will say it again: Kyle Shanahan will find ways to ensure his best playmakers touch the ball.

In what is expected to be a game played in below-zero temperatures with potential snow, I don’t like the odds of Shanahan trusting Jimmy Garoppolo to throw the ball a ton, especially when you consider the injuries Jimmy G is also dealing with and how ineffective he was back in their Week 3 matchup against the Packers.

This means Deebo will see a good number of carries against a Packers defense that’s allowing the third-most yards per carry (4.7) in the NFL. Gimme this over!

Looking for more props to bet for this one? Check out our 49ers vs Packers player props.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 32.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 5.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115) 76.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 4.5 (Ov +130 | Un -185) 45.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
A.J. Brown (TEN) 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 72.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Anthony Firkser (TEN) 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -190) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Julio Jones (TEN) 3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 44.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Nick Westbrook (TEN) 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 28.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 15.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 52.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
George Kittle (SF) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 49.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jauan Jennings (SF) 2.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Aaron Jones (GB) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 12.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Allen Lazard (GB) 3.5 (Ov +120 | Un -155) 39.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Davante Adams (GB) 7.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 94.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Randall Cobb (GB) 2.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 8.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 99.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Odell Beckham Jr (LAR) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tyler Higbee (LAR) 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 43.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Van Jefferson (LAR) 36.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Cameron Brate (TB) 16.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Mike Evans (TB) 5.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 69.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 24.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) 5.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 63.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyler Johnson (TB) 3.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 16.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Cole Beasley (BUF) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Dawson Knox (BUF) 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Gabriel Davis(BUF) 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 5.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 71.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Byron Pringle (KC) 34.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Mecole Hardman (KC) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Travis Kelce (KC) 5.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 70.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tyreek Hil (KC) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)

Though he was a little quiet last weekend, Cooper Kupp still heads into the NFL Divisional Round with the highest over/under for receiving yards. Kupp’s line is listed at 99.5, slightly edging out Davante Adams, whose receiving over/under is set at 94.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for NFL Divisional Round

1) Ja’Marr Chase OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at DraftKings; risk 0.5 units

For all the same reasons as last week—the Bengals look to their star rookie early and often in big games and he is simply un-guardable—I’m betting the over on Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards.

In his last three full games, Chase is averaging 169 receiving yards per. He has seen 34 targets in those games too.

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The Titans defense only allows 3.9 yards per carry, which is fourth-best in the league, and do not have any corner who can keep up with Chase. If the Bengals do wind up in desperation mode, as I suspect they will with Derrick Henry chewing up big portions of clock, Chase will see even more looks.

Good things happen for Cincinnati when the ball is in Chase’s hands. There’s no way they allow him to leave this game without putting his stamp on it.

This line is as high as 79.5 at some sportsbooks. Take the DraftKings line at 76.5.

(You can also find the moneyline, spread, and total with more picks for the game in our Bengals vs Titans odds preview, if you’re looking for more ways to bet the game.)

2) Randall Cobb OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

Apparently Randall Cobb explodes when he returns from lengthy injuries with the Packers. In 2013 Cobb missed ten straight games, only to return from injury in Week 17 and post 55 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Bears. He then missed the final two weeks of the 2016 regular season before coming back with five receptions for 116 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants in Wild Card Weekend.

Cobb has missed Green Bay’s last five games and has had six weeks of rest now when you include the Packers’ bye in the first round of the playoffs.

While Cobb is not the player he was in 2013 or 2016, and his return is certainly not tilting the 49ers vs Packers odds in any way, he is still someone Aaron Rodgers trusts. He has gone over 25.5 receiving yards in six of 12 games, which includes four receptions for 95 yards in the last game he played.

I suspect the 49ers to give Davante Adams a lot of attention, leaving room for Cobb to work in his return.
Most other sportsbooks have the line at 26.5 with -115 odds on each side.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Joe Mixon (CIN) +650 -105
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +800 +130
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1200 +190
Derrick Henry (TEN) +450 -190
A.J. Brown (TEN) +900 +140
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) +1300 +200
Deebo Samuel (SF) +750 -105
Elijah Mitchell (SF) +850 +120
George Kittle (SF) +1100 +175
Davante Adams (GB) +550 -135
Aaron Jones (GB) +700 +100
AJ Dillon (GB) +800 +120
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +600 -135
Cam Akers (LAR) +1000 +130
Odell Beckham Jr (LAR) +1200 +160
Leonard Fournette (TB) +650 -120
Rob Gronkowski (TB) +750 +100
Mike Evans (TB) +850 +110
Devin Singletary (BUF) +850 -105
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +1000 +120
Josh Allen (BUF) +1200 +150
Tyreek Hill (KC) +750 -120
Travis Kelce (KC) +850 -110
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) +900 +100

In his triumphant return, King Henry has the best odds of any player during the NFL Divisional Round to score a touchdown, as well as the best odds to score the first touchdown. Henry has -190 odds to score a touchdown, meaning a $100 bet only wins you $52.63.

Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp are tied for the next-best odds to score a touchdown this weekend, with each player given -135 odds to find the endzone. These odds imply that Cupp and Adams each have a 57.5% chance of scoring a touchdown.

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Anytime Touchdown Picks for Wildcard Weekend

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

  1. Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown (+120): While I do suspect Deebo Samuel to get his carries, Elijah Mitchell’s workload shouldn’t suffer as a result. Mitchell has seen at least 21 carries in each of his last six games. He has scored a touchdown in seven of 12 games this season, including four of his last five. We should not be getting odds this long (0.5 units)
  2. Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-135): Adams has eight touchdowns in his last seven games, and has scored at least once in five of those games. Most sportsbooks have Adams around -160 to -170 to score a touchdown this weekend, but DraftKings is offering him at the -135 line. Pounce while it’s available. (0.5 units)
  3. Odell Beckham Jr anytime touchdown (+175): This seems to be a pick I can just leave in this article each week. For some reason, sportsbooks are not adjusting OBJ’s touchdown odds in spite of him scoring week after week. Beckham now has a touchdown in six of his last eight games after finding the endzone against the Cardinals last weekend. You’ll find this line (the best one) at BetMGM(0.33 units)
  4. Gabriel Davis anytime touchdown (+300): The Bills have so many red zone threats in their offense, and Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary tend to get most of the attention. However, Gabriel Davis has blossomed into quite the red zone threat, catching a touchdown in four of his last six games. In a Bills vs Chiefs game where the total is as high as 54.5, I’m expecting many different players to get in on the action. At +300 odds, Davis is a great value play. (0.25 units)

Good luck with all your betting this weekend, and (as always) be sure to check out our NFL odds page to shop for the best lines on each game.

The post 2022 NFL Playoff Props – Best Player Props to Bet for the NFL Divisional Round appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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