Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds & Prediction – BNP Paribas Open Round of 16

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas is a -520 favorite to defeat Alex de Minaur in the round of 16 at the ATP BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday, October 14
  • Tsitsipas has won all five previous meetings between the two players on the ATP Tour
  • The world #3 player has won 10 of 12 sets from de Minaur

Whether talking about his play in general, or his performances against Alex de Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas is holding the hot hand. Overall, he’s won 11 of his past 14 matches.

Against de Minaur, the world’s #3 player from Greece, he is a perfect 5-0.

Tsitsipas is heavily favored to make it 6-0 when the two clash on Wednesday in men’s singles action in the round of 16 at the ATP BNP Paribas Open. The Greek player is the overwhelming odds-on -520 favorite to dispatch de Minaur.

De Minaur vs Tsitsipas BNP Paribas Open Round of 16 Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Alex de Minaur +385 +4.5 (-112) O 20.5 (-145)
Stefanos Tsitsipas -520 -4.5 (-118) U 20.5 (-110)

Odds as of October 13 at FanDuel

Action in this match at Indian Wells is slated to take the court at 9:00 pm ET on Wednesday. The Tennis Channel is carrying the broadcast.

Tsitsipas Winning Without His Best

A sign of greatness is the ability to get the job done without your A-game. That’s what Tsitsipas did in the round of 32 against Italy’s Fabio Fognini

The #2 seed struggled through a difficult first set, falling 6-2 to his Italian opponent. He fought his way back into the match, claiming a 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory in two hours and four minutes.

Fognini set the early tone, breaking Tsitsipas in the first game of the match. Tsitsipas began to scrap his way back into the match toward the end of that opening set. He fought off a pair of set points before ultimately succumbing.

Tsitsipas hit 21 winners against 28 unforced errors in winning the match and improving to 3-0 in his career against Fognini. He’s won a tour-leading 53 matches this year. However, Tsitsipas has also ended up dropping a set in four of his past six matches.

De Minaur On Top of His Game

Australian de Minaur has yet to drop a set in two matches at Indian Wells. The #22 seed took care of #16 seed Cristian Garin 6-2, 6-4 in the round of 32.

De Minaur pushed Garin to 11 break points, managing to win five of them during the match. His victory over world #17 Garin was the first the Australian has posted over a top 20 opponent this season.

It’s also the first time de Minaur has won consecutive matches since he earned his fifth career title at Eastbourne in June. He entered this tournament with one victory through his previous eight matches.

De Minaur’s best result in three previous Indian Wells appearances are second-round performances in both the 2018 and 2019 tournaments. Once as high as #15 in the world, de Minaur is enduring through an up and down year with a 23-20 slate. He’s currently situated #27 in the ATP rankings.

This is his best performance during an ATP Masters 100 event. De Minaur’s best effort in this level of tournament in the past were second-round performances in 2018-19.

Tsitsipas Dominating de Minaur

Any way you opt to slice or dissect this matchup, it always comes out to be lopsided in favor of Tsitsipas. Along with his perfect 5-0 slate against the Aussie in match wins, Tsitsipas has also captured 10 of 12 sets played between the two men.

Statistically, the Greek player is well ahead in aces (422-128) and is holding a decided edge in service games won (89-78). In fact, this season, Tsitsipas is displaying marked improvement in both service games (81-89%) and return games (21-26%) won.

The only areas where the two men show any sort of closeness on the court is in return games won (26-25%) and break points saved (67-63%). Even so, the advantage still belongs to Tsitsipas.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex de Minaur Stats

Stefanos Tsitsipas
Alex de Minaur
3 ATP Ranking 27
7 ATP Titles 5
17 ATP Final Appearances 9
53-15 W-L (2021) 23-20
89% Service Games Won 78%
26% Return Games Won 25%
67% Break Points Saved 63%
422 Aces 128

The world #3 is 4-0 against de Minaur on a hard-court surface. He’s won nine of the last 10 sets they’ve played against each other. Each of their last three meetings resulted in straight-set sweeps for Tsitsipas.

De Minaur hasn’t beaten a top-10 player since toppling then world number seven Alexander Zverev at the inaugural ATP Cup during the 2019 season.

Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas (-520); Tsitsipas 2-0 (-160)

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