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Top Plays: 16 of 68 (23.5%, +43.0u)
*considering 1u risk for Top Plays* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
ORLANDO MAGIC @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS – 7:00 EST
This will be the 2nd matchup of the year between the Cavs and Magic, with Magic having scored 1st in their only matchup this year (Gary Harris). Mo Bamba (52% Tip Win) will be facing against Evan Mobley (36% Tip Win) for the 1st time this year. Mobley’s jump stats get even worse on the road, with him winning only 25% of tips when the Cavs are away.
The Cavs also allow opposing teams an opportunity at 1st basket in 93% of the games that he’s jumped in. That gets even worse on the road, with the Cavs allowing an opportunity at 1st Basket in 100% of road games that Mobley jumps in. Given that, along with the fact Bamba has won 4 of the last 5 tips he’s jumped in, I think the Magic will have an opportunity to score 1st Basket today.
In the L5 games for the Magic, they’ve cashed 1st Basket in 3 of them (Bamba 2x, Wendell Carter Jr. 1x). Looking a little deeper, in the L9 games that the Magic took a 1st Basket attempt, Bamba and Cole Anthony took shots in 6 of them (67%). Bamba has scored 1st team FG for the Magic in 3 straight road games.
In the 9 games that Mobley jumps and the Cavs were scored on 1st, it was Center in 6 of them. In the other 3 games that they were scored on 1st, it was a Forward. Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba make up for 52% of the Magic’s 1st Baskets, so I think there’s enough value on both of them to play here tonight.
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