The Wells Fargo Championship returns to the 2020-21 PGA Tour schedule after the 2020 tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Max Homa returns as the defending champion from 2019 at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. He’ll need to hold off a strong field featuring two-time Wells Fargo winner Rory McIlroy and six of the top-nine golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Here, we’ll look at the most interesting prop bets available for the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship while trying to maximize our profit.
The Wells Fargo Championship is the second-to-last event before the 2021 PGA Championship. As a result, many of this week’s top attendees can be expected to skip next week’s AT&T Byron Nelson ahead of the year’s second major.
Also see: Wells Fargo Championship PGA Betting Guide.
Brian Harman to Finish in the Top 5 (+900 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Those looking at tournament history will see Harman won the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship, but that tournament was played at Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, N.C., while Quail Hollow was prepped for the 2017 PGA Championship. Still, this venue suits the game of the 48th-ranked golfer in the OWGR. Harman comes in off of four straight top-15 finishes, including a T12 at the Masters.
According to Data Golf, he’s the hottest player on Tour right now, with an average of 2.60 strokes gained per round on the average pro across his last 20 rounds.
Matt Wallace to be Top English Player (+240 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Wallace comes in on a stretch of three straight made cuts on the PGA Tour; he was third at the Valero Texas Open, T34 at the Masters, and T18 at the RBC Heritage. He has never played Quail Hollow Club professionally, but he’s fifth on Tour in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards. All but two of the par 4s at Quail Hollow measure at least 449 yards.
Wallace is also an interesting option for Top European (+1600) and Top GB & Ireland Player (+650), but he’s a great value in a smaller group for Top Englishman.
Best Finishing Position (Matt Wallace -110 vs. Rickie Fowler -120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Free money alert!
Fowler won this event at minus-14 in 2012 and is being listed as the favorite over Wallace. However, while Fowler tied for fourth in this event in 2019, his form since the start of 2020 has been in shambles. He has 11 missed cuts in 29 events with just two top-10 finishes last year. His top showing of 2021 was a T17 at the Valero Texas Open. In addition, the former champ is losing strokes putting and on approach to the green this season.
Bet on Wallace as an underdog and fade the public favorite in Fowler.
Group B Betting (Rory McIlroy +230, Viktor Hovland +240, Webb Simpson +250, Patrick Reed +300 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
This group features four of the top-12 betting favorites to win. McIlroy is a two-time winner but enters in awful 2021 form with missed cuts at the Masters and The Players Championship. Hovland tied for third at the Valspar with an impressive Sunday round of 65 but makes his pro debut at one of the Tour’s toughest stops. Reed missed the cut last week with a woeful putting performance.
My money’s on Simpson in this grouping. He’s first on Tour in scrambling and second in this group by the OWGR. He last tied for ninth at the RBC Heritage.
Will Phil Mickelson Make the Cut? (Yes -105, No -115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
The 50-year-old Mickelson is a short underdog to make the cut at the 7,521-yard Quail Hollow. Experience is on this side this week, however, as his 60 rounds played at Quail Hollow lead this field, and he has averaged 2.31 strokes gained on the field per round, according to Data Golf. Lefty missed the cut in 2019, but he tied for fifth in 2018 and for 18th in 2017.
He missed the cut at last week’s Valspar Championship due to poor putting, but he tied for 21st at the Masters in his previous event. He averaged 1.01 Strokes Gained: Approach over two rounds at Copperhead and needs to replicate that iron play this week.
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