- The Milwaukee Brewers are -250 road favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League afternoon game scheduled for Thursday, August 4
- Entering play Tuesday, Pittsburgh was 1-7 straight up over the past eight games
- Below, see the Brewers vs Pirates odds, picks, and betting trends
It’s worst-versus-first in the National League Central, as the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates (41-62, 22-29 home) play host to the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers (57-48, 31-26 away) in the final game of a three-game weekday series.
Not much is going right for the Pirates of late. Entering play Tuesday they were 1-7 straight up over their past eight games. That includes a 1-5 slate on a current eight-game homestead that wraps up with this game.
The Brewers are mostly enjoying facing the Pirates this season. Milwaukee is 9-5 SU against the Pirates this season. They’re 5-3 SU at Pittsburgh.
Taking all of this into consideration, it’s no wonder then that it’s the Brewers who are -250 road favorites in the rubber match of this three-game set. Pittsburgh is 15-26 against the run line as a home underdog this season.
First pitch at PNC Park is set for 12:35 pm ET on Thursday, August 4. The weather forecast is showing partly cloudy skies with 9 mph wind and a temperature of 91 degrees.
Brewers vs Pirates Odds
|Milwaukee Brewers||-250||-1.5 (+140)||O 8 (-105)|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||+205||+1.5 (+118)||U 8 (-115)|
Odds as of August 3 at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
At odds of -250, the Brewers are offering an implied probability of victory of 71.43% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Milwaukee would deliver a payout of $14.00.
The Brewers are the -425 odds-on favorites to win the NL Central in the MLB Division odds Pittsburgh is listed at +40000 to win the division. The MLB pennant odds have Milwaukee at odds of +950, while Pittsburgh is at +100000. In the World Series odds, bettors can access +2000 odds on the Brewers to win the MLB championship. Pittsburgh is +200000.
Milwaukee vs Pittsburgh Probable Pitchers
Brewers right-hander Brandon Woodruff has won his last four decisions. He’s 6-1 since May 15. Woodruff has held the opposition to one earned run or fewer through six of his last nine starts.
The Brewers pitcher hasn’t surrendered a home run over his past 36.1 innings. Woodruff has struck out at least eight batters in five of his past six trips to the mound.
Brandon woodruff since returning from his IL Stint:
5% barrel rate
1.6 fWAR (The most out of any pitcher since his return)
Looking a lot more like his 2021 self pic.twitter.com/P0NRRWv5D4
— AdamThaSportFan (@AdamThaSportFan) July 30, 2022
He’s 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in four starts this season against the Pirates. Woodruff is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts at Pittsburgh.
He’s made 14 appearances, 12 of them starts, against the Pirates over his career. Woodruff is 6-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. At PNC Park Woodruff is 2-0 with a 3.70 ERA.
Woodruff vs Thompson Stats
Right-hander Zach Thompson of the Pirates is winless over his last seven starts. He was 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA in five July starts.
Thompson has allowed 14 earned runs through his last 11 innings – seven earned runs in each of his last two starts. He’s 2-6 with a 5.51 ERA in 10 home starts.
Zach Thompson is a pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates
He has .630 strike percentage, has averaged 9.74 hits per 9 innings, and has faced a batter 359 times this season ⚾#LetsGoBucs #MLB pic.twitter.com/7EI5IuRKcr
— Random MLB Stats (@RandomMLBStats_) August 1, 2022
Among MLB hurlers, Thompson rates in the bottom 5% in xBA (.286), the bottom 8% in strikeout percentage (15.3) and the bottom 9% in xERA (.534) and xwOBA (.355).
Thompson is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts this season against Milwaukee. That’s the only times he’s faced the Brewers during his brief, two-season MLB career.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
|Pirates Batters||Batting Average vs Woodruff||Brewers Batters||Batting Average vs Thompson|
|Greg Allen||.000||Willy Adames||.571|
|Michael Chavis||.333||Mike Brosseau||.000|
|Oneil Cruz||.250||Victor Caratini||.250|
|Jason Delay||.000||Jonathan Davis||.000|
|Ben Gamel||.182||Keston Hiura||.500|
|Ke’Bryan Hayes||.214||Andrew McCutchen||.200|
|Tyler Heidemann||.000||Omar Narvaez||.500|
|Bligh Madris||.333||Hunter Renfroe||.000|
|Tucupita Marcano||.000||Tyrone Taylor||.000|
|Cal Mitchell||.000||Rowdy Tellez||.000|
|Kevin Newman||.333||Luis Urias||.500|
|Bryan Reynolds||.071||Kolten Wong||.200|
|Josh VanMeter||.000||Christian Yelich||.500|
Pirates hitters Bligh Madris (1-for-3), Michael Chavis (1-for-3) and Kevin Newman (8-for-24) are all batting .333 when facing Woodruff. Newman has homered and driven in two runs. Ben Gamel has also gone deep when batting against Woodruff.
Christian Yelich 2022 HR Thread
April 18, 2022
— Brewers Fever (@Brewers_Fever) April 19, 2022
For the Brewers, Willy Adames is 4-for-7 (.571) at the plate against Thompson. Christian Yelich is 3-for-6 (.500) with a grand slam. Luis Urias and Omar Narvaez are each 2-for-4 (.500) and both have homered. Keston Hiura is 1-for-2 (.500).
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction
Since coming back from a June stint on the IL due to Raynaud’s syndrome, a circulatory condition, Woodruff is looking like the pitcher who was an all-star and fifth in NL Cy Young voting last season.
It’s been a long time since Thompson was looking anything like a competent MLB starting pitcher. This has all the makings of a game that could quickly get out of hand.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers RL -1.5 (+140)