Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 2/23/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything — pace, defensive rating, individual matchups — tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I’ll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That’ll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I’ll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I’ll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that’ll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player’s total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn’t quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season’s data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating


This table shows each team’s spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team’s opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
BKN SAC 242.0 -7.0 124.50 125.6 2 123.1 30
LAC WSH 234.5 -11.5 123.0 126.9 1 116.4 27
MIL MIN 231.5 -10.5 121.0 123.5 3 114.6 23
DEN POR 230.5 -7.5 119.0 120.8 5 122.9 29
SAC BKN 242.0 7.0 117.50 113.9 12 116.0 26
ATL CLE 228.0 -7.0 117.50 114.2 11 115.5 24
BOS DAL 226.5 -1.5 114.0 110.4 17 112.8 17
DAL BOS 226.5 1.5 112.50 116.5 9 110.9 14
PHI TOR 223.0 -1.5 112.25 113.1 15 109.6 11
POR DEN 230.5 7.5 111.50 119.8 8 115.7 25
WSH LAC 234.5 11.5 111.50 105.4 22 110.6 13
GS NY 220.0 -2.5 111.25 110.1 18 104.0 3
TOR PHI 223.0 1.5 110.75 115.0 10 108.2 7
MIN MIL 231.5 10.5 110.50 98.8 28 109.3 10
CLE ATL 228.0 7.0 110.50 98.2 30 113.4 18
NY GS 220.0 2.5 108.75 102.1 25 105.8 4
ORL DET 208.0 -3.5 105.75 100.8 27 114.1 21
DET ORL 208.0 3.5 102.25 104.9 23 114.2 22

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points


This table shows each team’s adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team’s adjusted offensive rating and the opponent’s adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace. Remember, these are now showing just 2020-21 stats, so things get a little out of whack because of a smaller sample.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
MIL MIN 103.4 3 101.9 7 102.7 119.0 122.2
MIN MIL 101.9 7 103.4 3 102.7 104.0 106.8
BKN SAC 101.6 11 102.3 6 102.0 124.4 126.8
SAC BKN 102.3 6 101.6 11 102.0 115.0 117.2
LAC WSH 98.0 28 105.0 1 101.5 121.6 123.4
WSH LAC 105.0 1 98.0 28 101.5 108.0 109.6
PHI TOR 101.9 8 100.8 14 101.3 111.3 112.8
TOR PHI 100.8 14 101.9 8 101.3 111.6 113.1
GS NY 104.7 2 97.0 30 100.9 107.1 108.0
NY GS 97.0 30 104.7 2 100.9 103.9 104.8
BOS DAL 99.8 21 100.3 18 100.0 111.6 111.7
DAL BOS 100.3 18 99.8 21 100.0 113.7 113.8
ATL CLE 100.8 15 99.2 25 100.0 114.9 114.8
CLE ATL 99.2 25 100.8 15 100.0 105.8 105.8
ORL DET 100.1 19 98.9 26 99.5 107.5 107.0
DET ORL 98.9 26 100.1 19 99.5 109.6 109.1
DEN POR 98.9 27 100.1 20 99.5 121.9 121.2
POR DEN 100.1 20 98.9 27 99.5 117.8 117.1

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position


This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense’s opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent’s defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL CLE 0.95 (15) 0.89 (24) 0.87 (10) 1.01 (29) 1.10 (16)
BKN SAC 0.95 (13) 0.99 (30) 0.91 (22) 1.00 (25) 1.20 (27)
BOS DAL 0.97 (19) 0.82 (4) 0.88 (15) 1.01 (28) 1.10 (15)
CLE ATL 1.02 (26) 0.89 (21) 0.90 (19) 0.94 (12) 1.09 (12)
DAL BOS 0.92 (3) 0.84 (6) 0.88 (14) 0.90 (7) 1.15 (23)
DEN POR 0.99 (22) 0.97 (29) 0.79 (4) 0.96 (18) 1.10 (14)
DET ORL 1.02 (25) 0.94 (27) 0.91 (24) 0.97 (20) 0.95 (2)
GS NY 0.92 (2) 0.84 (9) 0.78 (3) 0.84 (2) 1.23 (29)
LAC WSH 1.09 (29) 0.84 (8) 0.89 (18) 0.97 (19) 1.22 (28)
MIL MIN 1.02 (27) 0.85 (11) 0.89 (16) 0.96 (16) 1.30 (30)
MIN MIL 0.94 (9) 0.82 (5) 0.92 (25) 0.94 (14) 1.09 (10)
NY GS 0.92 (4) 0.87 (16) 0.91 (23) 0.98 (21) 1.13 (19)
ORL DET 0.95 (11) 0.89 (23) 0.79 (5) 1.06 (30) 1.09 (13)
PHI TOR 0.94 (10) 0.86 (15) 0.87 (9) 1.00 (26) 1.12 (18)
POR DEN 0.93 (7) 0.87 (19) 0.93 (27) 0.91 (10) 0.96 (4)
SAC BKN 0.93 (8) 0.88 (20) 0.87 (13) 1.00 (24) 1.17 (26)
TOR PHI 0.99 (21) 0.89 (22) 0.89 (17) 0.89 (4) 0.93 (1)
WSH LAC 0.95 (14) 0.93 (26) 0.76 (1) 0.82 (1) 1.02 (5)

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