Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 4/8/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything — pace, defensive rating, individual matchups — tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I’ll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That’ll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I’ll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I’ll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that’ll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player’s total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn’t quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season’s data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating


This table shows each team’s spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team’s opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
UTAH POR 231.0 -7.0 119.0 122.4 4 121.5 29
SAC DET 227.0 -6.5 116.75 114.6 11 113.2 20
LAC PHX 224.0 -5.0 114.50 122.9 2 106.5 5
MIL DAL 228.0 -1.0 114.50 121.0 5 111.6 12
DAL MIL 228.0 1.0 113.50 115.3 10 109.5 9
POR UTAH 231.0 7.0 112.0 120.5 6 104.2 3
CHI TOR 216.5 -4.0 110.25 109.7 17 112.2 14
DET SAC 227.0 6.5 110.25 104.8 24 124.2 30
PHX LAC 224.0 5.0 109.50 118.5 7 109.7 10
CLE OKC 211.5 -3.5 107.50 96.7 30 112.8 19
TOR CHI 216.5 4.0 106.25 111.4 13 112.7 18
MIA LAL 204.0 -8.0 106.0 105.0 22 100.3 1
OKC CLE 211.5 3.5 104.0 97.0 29 113.3 21
LAL MIA 204.0 8.0 98.0 107.2 19 107.7 6

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points


This table shows each team’s adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team’s adjusted offensive rating and the opponent’s adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
DAL MIL 98.3 20 102.1 3 100.2 112.4 112.6
MIL DAL 102.1 3 98.3 20 100.2 116.3 116.5
CLE OKC 98.2 21 101.9 4 100.1 104.8 104.8
OKC CLE 101.9 4 98.2 21 100.1 105.1 105.2
CHI TOR 100.3 11 99.4 14 99.8 110.9 110.7
TOR CHI 99.4 14 100.3 11 99.8 112.1 111.9
DET SAC 97.6 26 101.2 7 99.4 114.5 113.8
SAC DET 101.2 7 97.6 26 99.4 113.9 113.2
POR UTAH 97.8 25 99.4 15 98.6 112.3 110.8
UTAH POR 99.4 15 97.8 25 98.6 122.0 120.3
LAC PHX 98.0 23 97.4 27 97.7 114.7 112.0
PHX LAC 97.4 27 98.0 23 97.7 114.1 111.4
LAL MIA 98.0 22 96.8 28 97.4 107.5 104.6
MIA LAL 96.8 28 98.0 22 97.4 102.6 99.9

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position


This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense’s opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent’s defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
CHI TOR 0.97 (16) 0.90 (25) 0.86 (13) 0.99 (25) 1.11 (17)
CLE OKC 0.98 (19) 0.89 (22) 0.96 (30) 0.99 (26) 1.14 (19)
DAL MIL 0.98 (20) 0.88 (18) 0.89 (22) 0.94 (15) 1.07 (8)
DET SAC 0.98 (21) 0.92 (27) 0.90 (26) 1.00 (27) 1.15 (21)
LAC PHX 0.88 (1) 0.77 (1) 0.79 (2) 0.89 (5) 1.10 (12)
LAL MIA 0.91 (3) 0.86 (11) 0.85 (12) 0.93 (10) 1.02 (4)
MIA LAL 0.98 (23) 0.85 (7) 0.81 (4) 0.88 (3) 1.03 (6)
MIL DAL 0.93 (6) 0.82 (3) 0.84 (9) 0.93 (11) 1.11 (16)
OKC CLE 0.96 (15) 0.86 (12) 0.87 (15) 0.95 (17) 1.16 (23)
PHX LAC 0.97 (17) 0.87 (15) 0.76 (1) 0.85 (2) 1.03 (5)
POR UTAH 0.93 (8) 0.78 (2) 0.85 (11) 0.90 (7) 1.10 (13)
SAC DET 0.95 (12) 0.88 (20) 0.79 (3) 1.08 (30) 1.10 (11)
TOR CHI 0.96 (14) 0.87 (16) 0.83 (7) 0.94 (14) 1.22 (28)
UTAH POR 1.01 (25) 0.94 (29) 0.81 (5) 0.97 (21) 1.04 (7)

The post Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 4/8/21 first appeared on SportsGrid.

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