Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Tigers +180|Brewers -215
Spread: Tigers +1.5 (+112)|Brewers -1.5 (-134)
Total: 9 Over -102| Under -120
Odds to Win the World Series: Tigers N/A|Brewers +950
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Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers News, Analysis, and Pick
The Milwaukee Brewers have all but locked up the NL Central. The Brew Crew have a 14.0 game lead over the Cincinnati Reds with less than two weeks to go in the season. They haven’t used that as an excuse to let up though, as the Brewers have won five in a row and seven of their past eight. Milwaukee rides that hot streak into a mini two-game series against the Detroit Tigers.
The Brewers send Freddy Peralta to the mound amid a downturn in production. Peralta has pitched only 7.2 innings over his past three outings, failing to make it past the fourth inning in any contest. The 25-year-old is allowing 1.96 walks and hits per inning pitched over that span for a 9.39 earned run average.
Peralta’s concerning metrics collide with a Tigers’ offense that is seeing the ball well over their recent sample of games. Detroit has the ninth-best on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week but hasn’t translated production into output. The Tigers rank 18th in the majors over that span, with only 27 runs scored. That disconnect implies that the Tigers are due for increased output over the coming games.
The Tigers don’t get much distance out of Wily Peralta, but they normally get a good showing. Peralta leads the Tigers staff with a 3.60 earned run average and has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. This season, the veteran righty has been reliable at home, pitching to a 2.38 earned run average across 22.2 innings. Peralta gives the Tigers a chance to compete when he takes to the mound, and tonight is no different.
The betting market has overreacted to the Brewers. The Tigers are 37-36 at home, winning three of their last four overall, and are due for increased output against a floundering pitcher. You can take a conservative approach and back the Tigers on the run line at plus-money, but we’re taking them outright.
The Bet: Tigers +180
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