Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans NFL Week 6 Prop Bets 10/17/2021

NFL Week 6 Prop Bets: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz enters this week’s matchup with a passing yard over-under line of 275.5. On the season, Wentz is averaging 264.4 yards per game. He has gone over this week’s line in 20% of his contests.

So far, Carson Wentz has produced at a below-average level, averaging 5 fewer yards per game than expected (opponent-adjusted). However, he is coming off his best performance, throwing for 402 yards vs Baltimore.

The Colts receiving unit is led by Michael Pittman who has 368 yards on the season. Pittman is receiving 25% of his team’s targets, good for 16th in the NFL.

Houston’s secondary is ranked 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed to number one receivers. My projections show Pittman finishing the game with 74 yards receiving on 7 catches.

Player This Weeks Line Over% Passing Yards In Average Game Average Game Over% Passing Yards In Great Game Great Game Over% Passing Yards In Bad Game Bad Game Over% +- Projected Yards
Carson Wentz 275.5 20.0 264.4 20.0 250.0 40.0 232.0 60.0 -5.733333

NFL Week 6 Prop Bets: Houston Texans

Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills has an over-under passing yard line of 225.5. In his time as the Texans quarterback, he has gone over this week’s line just once. On the season Mills is averaging just 167.25 yards through the air.

In week 5, Mills had his highest output of the season, throwing for 312 yards on 21 completions. This was significantly higher than his expected output of 198 yards.

The Texans receiving unit is led by Brandin Cooks. On the season, Cooks has 392 yards on a 33.6% target share. Third in the NFL. This is especially impressive as the Texans are ranked 30th in the league in pass plays per game.

Through five weeks the Indianapolis secondary is ranked 18th in the NFL in passing yards allowed to number one receivers. I am expecting Cooks to finish this game with 80 yards receiving on 9 catches. However, I don’t see Davis Mills repeating last week’s performance. I am leaning towards Mills on the under.

Player This Weeks Line Over% Passing Yards In Average Game Average Game Over% Passing Yards In Great Game Great Game Over% Passing Yards In Bad Game Bad Game Over% +- Projected Yards
Davis Mills 225.5 25.0 167.25 50.0 182.0 25.0 100.0 75.0 -41.75

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