Inter Milan vs. Real Madrid Odds, Picks, Prediction: Los Blancos Undervalued at San Siro (Sept. 15)

Berengui/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Vinicius Jr.

Inter vs. Real Madrid Odds

Inter Milan Odds +145
Real Madrid Odds +180
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +120)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Inter Milan and Real Madrid meet once again in the Champions League on Wednesday at the San Siro.

Inter Milan are off to a good start in Serie A, winning two of their first three matches, but the club has gone through a ton of transition in the offseason. Last season, they failed to qualify for the Champions League group stages with Real and Shakhtar Donetsk advancing instead. Another loss to the Spanish giants would hurt their chances once again to make it to the Round of 16 for the first time since 2012.

Real Madrid is looking to build off a semifinal appearance in last season’s Champions League. Los Blancos bring back pretty much the exact same squad as last season and are finally fully healthy after a season filled with bad injury luck. Real Madrid is off to a flying start in La Liga, on top of the league after four matches.

Now, they get to face an Inter Milan side they beat twice during the group stage last season.

_PromoID=[245]

Inter Eye Better European Results

Inter Milan are in a transition period after selling their best player — Romelu Lukakau — to Chelsea and also having to replace Antonio Conte.

Lukaku leaving pretty much kills Inter’s chance of not only repeating as Italian champions in Serie A, but competing for the Champions League title because of how important he was to the offense, scoring 30 goals and carrying a 0.73 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate.

Inter are in the exact same group from last year (minus Borussia Mönchengladbach) and, boy, did they struggle. Inter finished dead last in the group, going 1-2-3 (W-L-D) with both losses coming against Real.

Even with Lukaku, Inter was only fifth in Serie A in shot-creating actions behind Atalanta, Juventus, AC Milan and Napoli. They were also third in xG per match, so there’s going to be offensive regression after scoring 89 goals during their championship campaign.

Real Match Up Well With Italian Champions

Real Madrid have been solid through their first four La Liga matches, as they’re atop the table with 10 points and a +2.82 expected goal difference. Even though the group stage was a little chaotic for Los Blancos, they still ended up on top with a +5.40 xGDiff in six matches.

I really don’t see how things are going to drastically improve for Inter from their two defeats to Real Madrid a year ago. Real Madrid handily won the xG over the course of the two matches last season, finishing with a 3.30-0.94 xG advantage against Inter. 

Los Blancos were incredible away from home in La Liga last season, going 12-6-1 with a +12.85 xGD, which was the best mark in the league. Real Madrid also gets the edge in this match from a UEFA Coefficients perspective. Over the past five years, Spain on average is the second-best league in Europe, while Italy ranks fourth. The gap between the two leagues is pretty substantial.

The must-have app for Soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Betting Analysis & Pick

I have Real Madrid projected as a +125 favorite on the road at the San Siro, so I think there’s some value on the visitors via the Draw No Bet line of +105 at PointsBet and would play anything up to -120 odds.

Pick: Real Madrid Draw No Bet (+105, play to -120)

_PromoID=[19]

Read More

Related Articles

Responses