- Mexico hosts El Salvador in the 14th and final round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying on Wednesday, March 30th at 9:05 pm ET
- El Tri is looking to secure their ticket to Qatar 2022 and currently has a three point advantage for the final automatic qualification spot
- Get the Mexico vs El Salvador odds, analysis, and betting prediction below
The international break is soon wrapping up, but some coveted spots to the 2022 World Cup are still up for grabs in CONCACAF. On Wednesday night, third place Mexico takes on El Salvador in the final match of one of their more tumultuous qualifying campaigns. In fact, of the six qualifying rounds the Hexagonal was in place, from 1998-2018, Mexico only finished third one other time.
However, Mexico can still jump to second place if the United States slip up against Costa Rica. More importantly, they are also guaranteed a spot in at least the inter-confederation playoff, a result they also faced in 2014.
Realistically, El Tri have one foot in the door to Qatar 2022. The only way they do not automatically qualify on Wednesday night is if they lose, Costa Rica beats the United States and there is a five goal swing in goal differential, in favor of Costa Rica. But, it is CONCACAF and as we know, anything is possible.
Mexico vs El Salvador Odds
|Mexico vs El Salvador||MEX -1.5 (-210) | ESA +1.5 (+170)||MEX -910 | ESA +1700 | DRAW +650||Ov 2.5 (-165) | Un 2.5 (+133)|
Odds as of Mar 29th at Barstool Sportsbook
Overall, the moneyline odds for this match are heavily swayed in Mexico’s favor at -910. Furthermore, the over on total goals is the favored result in this match with odds of -165. Take this with a grain of salt as these teams have not hit the Over on total goals in their last eight combined matches.
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If Mexico do manage to qualify, their World Cup odds in Qatar currently sit at +10000.
The #USMNT, Mexico, and Costa Rica have secured top 4 spots in the Octagonal.
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) March 28, 2022
El Salvador Can Absorb Mexico Early
Firstly, even though El Salvador is out of World Cup contention, expect them to put in a shift on Wednesday. Hugo Pérez’s side has played out two gritty games against Jamaica and Costa Rica in the window. In turn, they will want to finish qualifying on a strong note away from home.
To be honest, it will not be an easy task. Mexico are still threatening opponents and El Salvador have not won in Mexico since 1954. However, in the reverse fixture, El Salvador hung around with El Tri just enough to stay in the game.
Mexico vs El Salvador CONCACAF WCQ Statistics
|1.16||Average goals scored||0.62|
|0.62||Average goals conceded||1.23|
|15.85||Shots per game||8.23|
Hector Moreno scored a lovely header in the 30th minute for Mexico and just after halftime El Salvador were crippled with a red card. Mexico would also go on to see red, but did not tack on the second goal until the 93rd minute. The baffling part about this game was it took place in October and represents the last time Mexico has scored before the 70th minute.
As a result, expect this to be a snoozer until the final third. Seriously, Honduras have allowed 24 goals in 13 games and El Tri could hardly find a way to break them down.
El Tri to Take an Organized Approach
From the other perspective, Mexico just have to see this game out cleanly. While they might internally want to leapfrog the United States, a draw will be satisfactory to see them through to Qatar 2022.
— Mexican National Team (@miseleccionmxEN) March 28, 2022
Tata Martino will be back on the sidelines for Mexico, and I would fully expect a calculated and organized game plan from the 59-year-old. Ultimately, Mexico can rely heavily on their defense in this game. Guillermo Ochoa has been superb as of late and the combination of Johan Vásquez and César Montes has worked out well in the middle.
Finally, expect Edson Álvarez to play a huge role in the middle of the park, with Hector Herrera out to suspension. Controlling the midfield will be paramount for Mexico to see their fifth consecutive clean sheet.
📰 NEWS 📰 @HHerreramex steps down from camp following yesterday's clash 🆚 🇭🇳.
— Mexican National Team (@miseleccionmxEN) March 29, 2022
Mexico vs El Salvador Best Bet
Overall, the best bet for this game is the Under on 2.5 total goals with odds of +133. This bet has such great value considering how little either of these sides have scored as of late. Furthermore, it is the third game of the window and tired legs do not translate to goals.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+133)
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