Giants vs. Rockies Odds
|Over/Under||9.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday afternoon and via DraftKings.|
With their bats warm, the Rockies will return home to a frigid Coors Field to take on the Giants, who have been the surprise of the National League so far in 2021.
Weather will try its best to keep runs at a minimum in this one, but can Aaron Sanchez and Germán Márquez do anything to help the cause? Let’s take a look at the numbers and see if we can find value in this one.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants’ rotation has led the league in ERA so far in 2021 with a sparkling 2.34 mark, and Sanchez has been a large part of what’s worked so well for San Francisco on the bump.
The righty has finally returned to the form he flashed so early in his career, but it’s come without his trademark sinker, which he’s dialed down all the way to throwing just 26.4%. Instead, he’s mixed it in with his other pitches almost equally and has decided to lean on his curveball, which he’s generated an effective 36.2% whiff rate on. As a result, his strikeout rate has crept up toward league average as he moves away from pitching to contact and more toward swings and misses. This transformation has surprisingly come with a lower walk rate, and he’s enjoying an improved 38.2% hard-hit rate as well.
Offensively, life’s been a dream for San Francisco of late. Over the past week, the Giants’ 105 wRC+ ranks 10th in baseball, which is a far cry from the production we saw from this lineup early on in the season. Most impressively, this run has come without Mike Yastrzemski, who is arguably the best hitter the Giants have. He’s currently on the shelf with an oblique injury and could be returning later this week.
Part of the reason this team hasn’t missed Yaz is because of the newly-acquired Mike Tauchman, who’s gone 5-for-16 in his short time with the Giants with a homer, double and 5 RBI. Even when their big bopper returns, Tauchman should have a role on this team.
Colorado entered its series against the Giants last week in San Francisco winless on the road, but managed to pick up its first win away from Coors Field against Sanchez. Then, the Rockies went to Arizona and picked up another road win with a 14-run performance. This team showed signs of life on the road, where it is just 2-12 this year, so heading back home, where it’s 8-7, things could be looking up.
In Colorado this year, the Rockies have looked like a competent offense. They’ve hit .258, which ranks seventh in baseball, and have scored the second-most runs with 89. Obviously, with more runs for Colorado comes more runs for its opposition given the park factor, but the Rockies shouldn’t lose for lack of run support.
That’s where Márquez comes in. The righty has been pretty effective this year with a 4.13 ERA and an average exit velocity of 87.2 mph. His toughest outings this year have come against the Giants, however, against whom he’s yielded seven runs on 10 hits and six walks over 9 2/3 innings. Against some other great offenses like the Dodgers, he’s been fine. The Giants have just tripped him up.
Márquez will be in for a challenge given his history with the Giants, and also his issue with walks last year. He’s in the bottom 17% of the league in walk rate, and San Francisco sits fifth in that category.
Getting a Coors Field over in single digits is always a treat, and I think this one checks all the boxes. Sanchez has been good this year, but he did struggle in his last start against the Rockies with five walks, and things will only get tougher against Colorado at home.
On the other hand, Márquez has been so-so, and will have the tougher of the two tasks against a strong Giants lineup. The seven earned runs in two starts scares me if I’m someone looking at taking the Rockies.
Here, I have to side with the over. Both offenses are trending up and this total has no business being under 10 runs.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115)