- Kyle Larson is the favorite this week at the Autotrader Echopark Automotive 500 on Sunday, October 17th, 2021
- The “Round Of 8” starts from the Texas Motor Speedway as the playoffs keep rolling
- We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race at Fort Worth
NASCAR heads to Fort Worth for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 on Sunday afternoon. This is after the race at Charlotte, where Kyle Larson turned an alternator problem into his seventh win of the season. The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds favor Kyle Larson at +340. However, several other viable choices could be wiser options this week at Texas as the Round of 8 begins.
Let’s look at the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds from the Texas Motor Speedway and figure out which drivers are the best bets.
NASCAR Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Odds
|Driver||Odds to Win||Odds to Finish Top Three||Odds to Finish Top Five|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+900||+260||+110|
Odds as of October 14th at DraftKings
Kyle Larson The Speedway Favorite to Win at Fort Worth
NASCAR drivers will run on the 1,50-mile Texas Motor Speedway when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 2:00 PM EST.
At Charlotte, four more racers were eliminated from “The Chase” including Kevin Harvick. Harvick was getting closer to the lead when he heard footsteps so to speak.
Kyle Larson benefits from the metrics but also the idea that he won last week so oddsmakers have to consider him the favorite this week as a reflex. Larson starts from the pole this week with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch right behind him. Busch is listed at +700 in the NASCAR Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds.
Now, as always, the first eight spots are determined with the order of the playoffs in mind. Kyle Larson is fourth on intermediate tracks since 2018 with an average finish of 10. That does include a second-best driver rating of 108.6 and three checkered flags.
Kyle Larson runs Denny Hamlin wide off Turn 4 and takes the lead with eight laps to go. Tyler Reddick to second #NASCAR
— Kelly Crandall (@KellyCrandall) October 10, 2021
Kyle Larson will do almost anything to win a race. He drives aggressively and on a track like the Texas Motor Speedway, which serves him well.
Denny Hamlin starts second based on metrics and is the second betting favorite at +600 in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds. Again, the top 8 in the playoff chase get the preference here as far as starting order. This is the type of race where the low-wear drivers have a better chance. That includes drivers like Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. Larson and even Hamlin have not fared quite as well on the Texas track.
Plus, the first race of this three-race trilogy carries features more intermediate track racing on the quad-oval. After that, there is Kansas and then Martinsville (a short-track).
Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Recent Winners
|Year||Race Winner||Pole Position||Most Laps Led|
|2020||Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing||Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing||Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing|
|2019||Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing||Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing||Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing|
|2018||Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing||Ryan Blaney — Team Penske Racing||Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing|
|2017||Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing||Kurt Busch – Stewart-Haas Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing|
|2016||Carl Edwards — Joe Gibbs Racing||Austin Dillon — Richard Childress Racing||Joey Logano — Team Penske|
The race is normally 334 laps but overtime has only occurred once since 2015. 2016 featured a rain-shortened version of the race at 293 laps.
Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch Betting Odds & Analysis
Sports bettors have a small window of history when it comes to two of the better drivers on this Texas track. Yes, Kyle Busch is treading water in the NASCAR Cup Series odds. Kevin Harvick’s name has been dropped but the next three-race track has at least two courses that favor the No. 4 driver.
The good news is that there two drivers have combined for four wins in the last six races at the Texas Motor Speedway. Harvick offers place differential upside since he starts 24th on Sunday. Busch, on the other hand, begins in third because of metrics. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has a better chance to win. He starts from a better position and does lead the second-highest percentage of laps at 15% since 2018. His speed tests have been as good or better than Harvick’s during the Final Stage as well.
Kyle has been great at Texas. I feel he’ll secure his final 4 at this race pic.twitter.com/m9j3uxRX0G
— Garrett Lee (@Garrett75754672) October 13, 2021
So, does one go with Harvick or the younger Busch? It is an excellent question. This depends on what one is betting on. Harvick is more likely to finish in the top ten maybe top five as opposed to the win. Busch can win here and at Kansas as well.
Is Ryan Blaney Being Forgotten A Bit?
So, the problem with trying to focus on so many drivers is one racer inevitably gets forgotten. Is Ryan Blaney that driver this week? That is possibly true. Blaney has five top-ten finishes in his last six Texas races, has come close to winning several times, and has the third-best driver rating at 110.6.
Furthermore, Blaney has led 12.71% of the laps raced in that span too. The Team Penske driver is their best hope at a win in the next few races also. The No. 12 starts from the fourth position at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday.
The possibilities this weekend are endless for the Sunday race and do watch the weather in case. There are some non-chase racers to consider in best bets too.
Finally, here are our best bets:
- Top Pick: Ryan Blaney to win (+900)
- Medium Shots: Kyle Busch (+2500), Kevin Harvick (+1400)
- Longshot: Erik Jones (+8000)
- Kyle Busch Top 3 (+200), Erik Jones Top 5 (+1000), Kurt Busch Top 5 (+310)
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