NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Odds & Picks: Longshot Winner (2022)

Let’s check out the top odds and picks for the NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Speedway.

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Odds to Win the FireKeepers Casino 400

Best Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400

The NASCAR Cup Series races at only two two-mile intermediate tracks: Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway. The two are highly correlated, although Auto Club’s aging track surface differs from Michigan’s smoother pavement. Still, I intend to lean heavily on the results from Auto Club when making my picks.

We do have a few other solid comparator circuits. Las Vegas Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway all have relatively smooth surfaces, and drivers who performed well in those races should fare well on Sunday. Drivers who looked good in the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway should benefit, too.

Long shot: Austin Dillon | +7000 (.05u) at PointsBet

I like Erik Jones as a long shot this weekend. He looked dominant at Auto Club earlier this year and recorded the best driver rating in the event. Unfortunately, the books aren’t stupid. You’ll find Jones at only +2500 at most sites. But the books are forgetting about Austin Dillon.

Dillon finished one spot better than Jones at Auto Club. While he didn’t lead any laps or earn any stage points like Jones did, Dillon still scored a second-place finish. Further, Dillon’s teammate, Tyler Reddick, led the most laps and recorded the second-best driver rating. His team will have Reddick’s notes from that event to use this weekend.

Dillon has also impressed at the shorter, smoother intermediates. This year, he finished a respectable 13th at Kansas and 11th at Las Vegas. But Dillon has found weird ways to win at these tracks in prior years—his 2020 win at Texas and 2017 win at Charlotte come to mind—and he could pull off an upset again on Sunday. This line is trading at +5000 across the market, so PointsBet is handing out +2000 of extra value at their site.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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