NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Odds & Picks: Matchup to Bet (2022)

Let’s check out the top odds and picks for the NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Speedway.

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Odds to Win the FireKeepers Casino 400

Best Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400

The NASCAR Cup Series races at only two two-mile intermediate tracks: Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway. The two are highly correlated, although Auto Club's aging track surface differs from Michigan's smoother pavement. Still, I intend to lean heavily on the results from Auto Club when making my picks.

We do have a few other solid comparator circuits. Las Vegas Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway all have relatively smooth surfaces, and drivers who performed well in those races should fare well on Sunday. Drivers who looked good in the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway should benefit, too.

Larson (+100 (1.25u) at DraftKings) vs. Elliott

The books are once again overrating Elliott. Although this line didn't hit last weekend, Larson and Elliott were running pretty similar races before Larson's brakes stopped working. As a result, I'm stunned to see Larson's implied odds at exactly a coin flip.

Larson beat Elliott at Auto Club this year. He also finished ahead of Elliott in his lone Michigan start for Hendrick Motorsports. Further, Larson was beating Elliott here in Michigan before he even joined Hendrick. He is 6-3 against Elliott at Michigan all time. Lastly, Elliott hasn't recorded a top-five finish here since June 2017. Larson has added one win and three top fives to his Michigan resume since then.

Elliott's streak of consecutive top-two finishes came to an end last weekend. I already wasn't scared of the momentum, but I'm even less scared of it now. Backing Larson on multiple markets is a surefire way to secure profitable picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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