NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Odds & Picks: Outright Winner (2022)

Let’s check out the top odds and picks for the NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Speedway.

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Odds to Win the FireKeepers Casino 400

Best Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400

The NASCAR Cup Series races at only two two-mile intermediate tracks: Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway. The two are highly correlated, although Auto Club's aging track surface differs from Michigan's smoother pavement. Still, I intend to lean heavily on the results from Auto Club when making my picks.

We do have a few other solid comparator circuits. Las Vegas Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway all have relatively smooth surfaces, and drivers who performed well in those races should fare well on Sunday. Drivers who looked good in the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway should benefit, too.

Winner: Kyle Larson | +750 (.25u) at PointsBet

Larson should be the favorite this weekend. He has won at Michigan three times in just 13 starts. Only two active drivers, Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle, have won more Michigan races. But it took Harvick 40 tries to win five times (and 38 to win three), and it took Biffle 20 tries to get four wins (and 19 to win three).

Further, Larson's dominance at Michigan extends to its sister track, Auto Club Speedway. He owns a pair of wins there, the second-most among active drivers, in just eight starts. That includes this year's race, which was the only start he made at Auto Club for Hendrick Motorsports.

The books haven't made Larson their favorite for Sunday's event. I find this odd. They're running with Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch instead, but neither driver has won races at these tracks at a higher clip than Larson. Elliott hasn't even won at either circuit. Busch and Elliott have been great at the shorter, smoother intermediates this year, but that doesn't justify them having shorter odds than Larson.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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