Parlay bets are a fun way to build your bankroll fast. However, the extra rewards come with extra risk — if you aren’t careful, parlays will burn through your bankroll faster than you can break even.
Fortunately, DraftKings offers users a $25 risk-free bet on NFL same-game parlays. So with nothing to lose (and bankroll to gain), how should you attack Thursday night’s action? For starters, expect to see me feature quite a few overs in this column. Since 2017, the over has hit in 60% of games played on Thursday; in 2020, it hit in 57.1% of the time. I suspect that’s due to a lack of adequate rest and preparation, both of which make life hard for defensive players.
I advise that you approach this column as a strong parlay that features a handful of smart straight bets. I’ll include recommended unit sizes for each play, along with a recommended parlay size. NOTE: DraftKings Sportsbook’s same-game parlay feature uses lines that are not available as single-wager markets.
Parlay YTD: 1-0-0 (+1.96u)
Straight Bets YTD: 2-0-0 (+1.37u)
All NFL Bets YTD: 4-2-0 (+2.03u)
Leg #1. Daniel Jones o14.5 Rushing Yards
Related Straight Bet: Daniel Jones o20.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Straight Bet Size: .5u
Daniel Jones will have to run for his life against Washington’s front seven. Talented pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat will cause problems for him behind the line of scrimmage. However, Jones has routinely shown a willingness to scramble in these situations, often to great effect.
Jones was an effective rusher against Washington last season. He attempted 13 rushes in their two games and compiled 78 yards, including a 49-yard designed run.
Daniel Jones RAN for 49 yards and faked out the camera crew in the process pic.twitter.com/0QwfYcyHb8
Jones finished with at least 15 rushing yards in all but four of his starts last season. It looks like Jason Garrett isn’t shying away from this strategy in 2021, as Jones led the Giants in rushing yards with 27 on six attempts against the Broncos.
Leg #2. Daniel Jones u269.5 Passing Yards
Related Straight Bet: Daniel Jones u1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-205)
Straight Bet Size: 1u
If Jones is gaining yards on the ground, he isn’t gaining them through the air. As such, we’ll use a high-correlation play as our second leg by taking the under on an alternate total for his passing yards. Jones has surpassed this yardage threshold just six times in his young career, but he has only done so once under offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, and it came in Week 1 of last season (another interesting note: Jones hasn’t thrown for more than 256 yards in a non-Week 1 game under Garrett).
Washington limited Jones to 324 total passing yards last season, good for just 162 per game. You could probably add some value to this prop by lowering the total, but I advise that you approach it with caution — limited rest can turn Thursday Night Football games into shootouts; Jones posted his fourth-best result in passing yards (244) last season on a Thursday, too.
Leg #3. Giants o12.5 Points
The Giants barely cleared this total last week. They ended up with 13 points after a miraculous last-second rushing touchdown by Jones in garbage time. They even failed to clear this threshold in four games last year. However, the aforementioned Thursday night trends make this a safer play than usual.
New York also looked decent against Washington last season. They won both games and cleared the 20-point mark twice. Daniel Jones didn’t have his full set of weapons in either game, too — Sterling Shepard missed their first meeting, and Saquon Barkley missed both. The Giants may only score 13 points on Thursday, but that’s all we need them to do.
Leg #4. Washington o12.5 Points
You can’t take this line any lower at DraftKings. I’m unwilling to play the moneyline or an alternate full-game spread because neither quarterback has proven himself trustworthy, so the bare minimum total feels like an appropriate substitute. It even creates more value for the parlay than Giants +10.5, which is the lowest threshold at which I’m willing to buy New York.
Washington scored 16 points last week, which wasn’t great, but it’s the Thursday trends that make me feel comfortable here. Well, that and the fact that New York just gave up 27 points to Teddy Bridgewater’s Broncos. Washington scored at least this many points in every game last season, too.
Total Odds: +170 at DraftKings
Parlay Bet Size: 1u
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