NHL Betting Guide for May 3rd

Well, here we go, folks, the last full week of NHL Regular Season action. Granted, the season has been extended until May 19, but as far as actual games go, this will be the last full week that all teams are in action. We’ve got a mind-numbing 14-game schedule to look forward to tonight, which means there is no time to waste.

Here are the plays we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook!

New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins, Moneyline, Total, and Odds


Moneyline: Devils +205, Bruins -250

Spread: Devils +1.5 (-132), Bruins -1.5 (+110)

Total: o5.5 -110

Odds to Stanley Cup: Devils N/A|Bruins +1300

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins News, Analysis, and Picks


The Boston Bruins take to the road for a back-to-back set with the New Jersey Devils. The Bruins will have to get over some shoddy road metrics if they hope to collect all four points against the Devils.

Over their last nine road games, the Bruins have put up an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in five of them. Their production metrics are in shambles, as the Bruins have out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances in just three of those games, putting up an average of 7.4 chances per game at five-on-five. Scoring chances are slightly better, as the Bruins have out-chanced their opponents in five of nine but are still managing 19.8 chances per game. It’s also worth noting that four of those games came against the Buffalo Sabres, the worst team in the league.

The Devils are riding high after three straight wins against the Philadelphia Flyers. Jersey managed 15 goals across the three games, which was their highest three-game total this season. The Devils’ actual goals-for percentage remains below expected, which suggests that they could continue to progress until the end of the season.

New Jersey has had some success against the Bruins this season, outplaying them at five-on-five in three of the six matchups. They’ve won four of those contests thanks to Mackenzie Blackwood’s 95.0% save percentage against the B’s this season.

Five of the six games between these teams have stayed under the total this season, including both games in New Jersey. We’re expecting that trend to continue tonight and taking a stance on the Devils as over-priced underdogs.

The Bets: Under 5.5 -110, Devils +205

Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets, Moneyline, Total, and Odds


Moneyline: Senators +134, Jets -158

Spread: Senators +1.5 (-200), Jets -1.5 (+164)

Total: o6.5 +106

Odds to Stanley Cup: Senators N/A|Jets +2000

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets News, Analysis, and Picks


The Winnipeg Jets are getting a lot of credit in the betting market considering their recent performances. The Jets have fallen out of second place in the NHL North, and they are at risk of falling even further against the Ottawa Senators tonight.

Winnipeg has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% at five-on-five in three of their last six, losing all six games. The Jets attempted 22 or fewer scoring opportunities and nine or fewer chances from high-danger areas in five of those six games. The most concerning part has been the play of Connor Hellebuyck, who has put up a save percentage of 88.2% or lower in four of those six games. Hellebuyck’s an integral part of the Jets team; when he struggles, so do the Jets.

Now, the Jets are forced to turn things around on the road, where they have struggled all season. Across all strengths, the Jets rank second-last in the league in expected goals-for and have overachieved relative to their expected metrics thanks to a league-leading 1.034 PDO. Not only do they have to contend with regression, but more importantly, a Sens team that plays great on home ice.

Ottawa has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in five of their last six home games. The Sens are killing their efficiency ratings, getting things done on both ends of the ice. Opponents have attempted an average of 4.8 high-danger chances and 15.3 scoring opportunities at five-on-five over that span, compared to the Sens 8.2 and 22.0 chances per game, respectively. With play like that, we’re expecting more wins than we’re getting.

Ottawa has been lights out at home recently and the Jets continue to play ahead of their metrics, particularly on the road. That’s enough to get us to bite on the +134 price tag in backing the Sens tonight.

The Bet: Senators +134

Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights, Moneyline, Total, and Odds


Moneyline: Wild +112, Golden Knights -132

Spread: Wild +1.5 (-255), Golden Knights (+205)

Total: o5.5 -112

Odds to Stanley Cup: Wild +2200|Golden Knights +550

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights News, Analysis, and Picks


We took a stance against the Minnesota Wild a couple of weeks ago. They were playing above their metrics and compiled an unsustainable PDO. Although they did come down for a couple games, they remain on the wrong side of sustainable output and could get knocked off their pedastal by the Vegas Golden Knights.

Over the last 14 games, the Wild have been outplayed at five-on-five in 10 of them. In that span, Minnesota has gone 9-3-2 despite those metrics working against them. Their PDO over the 14 game sample is 1.061 and has pushed their season-long PDO to 1.027, which is tops in the NHL. The pendulum should start swinging in the opposite direction.

It’s been business as usual for the Golden Knights who have put up a cumulative 53.5% expected goals-for percentage over their last six games. The Knights have outplayed five of their opponents over that span and are averaging 31.0 scoring and 12.8 high-danger chances across those six games. That’s a troublesome metric for the Wild who have allowed 12 or more high-danger chances in three of their last six.

The Golden Knights chances tonight are better than their moneyline price implies. It’s on that basis that we’re taking them as short faves to beat the Wild.

The Bet: Golden Knights -132

The post NHL Betting Guide for May 3rd first appeared on SportsGrid.

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