Monaco vs. Lyon Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +138)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||beIN SPORTS XTRA|
|Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings|
Monaco hosts Lyon in a huge match in Ligue 1 that could decide the title and the final Champions League spot.
Monaco have been the best team over the second half of the Ligue 1 season and are now only a few points behind Lille and PSG for the top spot. They have perhaps been the hottest team in the world over the past few months, winning five straight matches by a combined score of 15-0.
Lyon’s title hopes took a major hit last weekend when they blew a 2-0 lead against Lille at home to lose 3-2. They are still alive for the third and final Champions League spot, but they need all three points from this match to have a shot. Lyon are one of the best road teams in Ligue 1, with only one loss this season, so this will be a fascinating encounter.
Nobody in European soccer is hotter than Monaco since the calendar turned to 2021. Since the January 6th, Monaco are 14-2-1 with a +22.19 xG. Their offense has been flying high and nobody has been able to stop them, as they’re creating 2.00 xG per match.
Over the second half of the season, Monaco switched to a 4-4-2, which is a very defensive formation. However, the change has done wonders, as Monaco have a +0.68 xGD per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The biggest difference for Monaco from the first half of the season compared to the second half has been their defense. Through the first 17 matches of the season, Monaco allowed 1.19 xG per match, which isn’t a horrible defensive record. However, over their last 17 matches, they’re only allowing 0.69 xG per match. So, it seems the switch to the 4-4-2 was the right choice for manager Niko Kovac.
Les Gones are seemingly out of the title race after last weekend’s loss, which is a real shame because their underlying metrics are some of the best in France. Their offense has scored the second-most goals in France and averages an insane 2.18 xGF per match. Lyon also have the best expected-goal differential in Ligue 1 at +39.34 through 34 matches.
However, you don’t achieve an expected-goal differential that good with just a high-flying offense. Lyon also have one of the best defenses in Ligue 1, allowing only 0.98 xG per match. That number gets even better on the road, where they’re allowing only 0.92 xG per match.
Lyon only created 1.04 xG against Lill’s 4-4-2 formation last week, so it’ll be interesting how well their offense will do against Monaco’s 4-4-2.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though these are two of the best offenses in the Ligue 1, they are also two of the best defenses as well. With Monaco playing out of a 4-4-2 formation, they’ll likely sit back defensively and try to hit Lyon on the counter.
Since I have 2.60 goals projected for this match, I think there is some value on Under 2.5 goals at +138 (DraftKings).
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+138)