There are many tight races in the MLB right now, with multiple teams fighting for a Wild Card spot and others looking to win their division.
It’s already August. Every game is becoming a little bit more important as we inch closer to the end of the regular season. I know the NFL is technically back, but there’s no better sport to bet on than baseball!
Here are my top three bets for tonight’s slate of games.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians have really struggled against left-handed pitching lately. In the last 30 days, the Guardians’ projected lineup has a .150 ISO with a wOBA of .304.
Tonight, the Guardians will take on Framber Valdez, who continues to impress analytically on the mound. Valdez has a 3.50 xFIP in the last month, with over 68% of ground balls induced when balls are hit into play.
The Guardians are getting production out of Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez, and Andres Gimenez. But other than those three, the Guardians have been weak against lefties.
On the other hand, the Guardians will pitch Hunter Gaddis. He’ll be making his major league debut tonight after being selected 160th overall in 2019.
He already has a 4.07 ERA in the minors with a 1.16 WHIP. Facing the Astros will be his toughest test to date. It could be daunting facing Yordan Alvarez as a right-handed batter.
Take the Astros on the run line.
Bet: Astros -1.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The New York Yankees will send out Nestor Cortes for tonight’s series-opening game against the Cardinals. Cortes has a 4.83 xFIP in the last 30 days while allowing more line drives than ground balls when balls are hit into play. In the last 30 days, batters literally have 29.9% of line drives hit when the ball is batted into play against Cortes.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, will have at least eight righties in their lineup to face the lefty in Cortes. In the last month, the Cardinals have a .229 ISO and wOBA of .405 against lefties. Paul Goldschmidt has led the charge, but Albert Pujols and Tyler O’Neill have shown off some power as well.
Meanwhile, Dakota Hudson will get the call for the Cardinals. The righty has struggled with a 5.72 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s only struck out 11.8% of batters in that time frame.
The Yankees are hitting a .199 ISO with a wOBA of .357 against righties with their projected lineup in the last 30 days. Hudson isn’t allowing a ton of power, but the Yankees should be able to limit strikeouts and put the ball in play. When New York does that, there’s usually some power involved.
I’ll take the over in this one.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Padres made so many additions to their offense. It’s time to prove that they can compete against the Dodgers now.
Tony Gonsolin will take the hill for the Dodgers. He’s got a 4.38 xFIP in the last 30 days while striking out just 20.2% of batters faced.
He’s struggled against righties recently, allowing a .365 wOBA and ISO of .262 to his last 45 righties. The Padres should have Brandon Drury in the lineup as a righty and will also have Manny Machado, of course. Although Gonsolin isn’t as bad to lefties, he’s still allowing plenty of line drives from lefties. Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Jake Cronenworth still have a lot of potential in this lineup as lefties.
On the other side, Sean Manaea will get the call for the Padres. He’s got a 4.57 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out around 20% of batters faced as well. Manaea, a lefty, has been struggling against both sides of the plate.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers haven’t struggled at all against lefties. In the last month of baseball, the projected lineup has a .279 ISO and wOBA of .364 against lefties. Only Will Smith has a low ISO number against lefties in that time frame.
I’m looking at the over in this game as well. Both of these teams have incredibly high-powered offenses.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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