Check out our top three odds and picks for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill
A closer look at Santos’ losses shows that in addition to the recent loss against a title prospect in Ankalaev, Santos’ losses have also come against a recent champ in Glover Teixeira and contender Aleksandar Rakic. While Hill’s striking might win out, I have this fight much closer to even, as Santos is still a fighter that can win in the UFC despite the one killer after another he’s been dealt as of late.
Best Bet: Thiago Santos (+220)
Augusto Sakai vs. Serghei Spivac
In the second fight of the main card, we have a heavyweight bout between Serghei Spivac and Augusto Sakai. We instantly gain value in picking either fighter to win via decision due to the fact that this is a heavyweight fight.
That being said, Spivac’s path to victory is utilizing his superior ground game and grappling, which prolongs the ending of the fight unless he submits Sakai. However, Sakai has never been submitted in his professional career.
This scrap will have two very different styles as Sakai wants this standing while Spivac wants it on the mat. If Spivac wins that battle, then it is entirely plausible to believe that he will just go for control and take a win by points.
We have seen Sakai struggle in this aspect of his game before, particularly in his loss to Alistair Overeem, which would have seen the scorecards if it was not a five-round fight. On the other hand, we have seen Spivac pull off this game plan with his decision victory over Carlos Felipe.
Riding a three-fight losing streak, Sakai may struggle in this fight against the up-and-coming Spivac.
Sam Alvey vs. Michar Oleksiejczuk
For the final fight of the prelims, we have a middleweight bout between Sam Alvey and Michal Oleksiejczuk. The legend of Alvey continues, as no one in the world knows how or why this guy keeps getting fights in the UFC.
June 1, 2018. That is the last time Alvey has won a fight in this promotion, producing a 0-7-1 record since then.
Of those seven losses, four have been inside the distance with two via submission. Both of those losses via submission were over his last three scraps, and both were by a rear naked choke.
We are getting great value in Oleksiejczuk via submission here, particularly in a fight where he is over a 6/1 favorite on the moneyline. The reason for this value is because of the fact that Oleksiejczuk has never subbed anyone in the UFC, but Alvey will provide the easiest opportunity for him to get the first one.
Prior to joining the UFC, Oleksiejczuk picked up one win via submission in the Thunderstrike Fight League. How did he do so?
Via rear naked choke, which is how I think he will put Alvey out of this fight and finally out of the UFC.
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