Top 5 MLB Player Props for August 5, 2022

The weekend is almost here, and we have a loaded Friday night slate on tap. What better way to spend your evening cashing player props? If that sounds good, dive into my top five player props for today’s slate.

Ian Anderson Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+130)
Atlanta vs. New York 7:10 pm ET

Ian Anderson has given up more than his fair share of hard contact this season as he ranks in the bottom 40 percent in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He’ll be facing a Mets lineup that puts the ball in play a ton and has the sixth highest BABIP in the majors. The last time Anderson faced the Mets in May, he allowed five hits over five-plus innings of work. Given how hot the Mets offense has been lately, we’re getting great odds on this.

Eric Lauer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee 8:10 pm ET

Lauer has quietly been racking up the strikeouts this season as he averages just over one strikeout per inning. Tonight, he faces a free-swinging Reds lineup with the fourth highest strikeout rate in the majors, and that number remains the same against lefties. So given the matchup, if we get five innings out of Lauer, this over should hit easily.

Robert Dugger Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+123)
Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee 8:10 pm ET

We go to the other starter in this matchup in Milwaukee as Robert Dugger will be making his first start for Cincinnati. This line is far too low for someone with Dugger’s stuff. His change-up, slider, and fastball each have a whiff rate of over 39 percent. He will need only a few innings to go over this total. He’s made three extended relief outings of at least three innings and stuck out at least five batters in all of them.

Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Colorado vs. Arizona 9:40 pm ET

This season, Bumgarner has been crushed by right-handed hitters as he’s allowed a .266 batting average. He gets to go up against the Rockies, who happen to be the best club when it comes to hitting lefties. They have the fifth lowest strikeout rate against left-handers as well, and on top of that, Bumgarner’s strikeout rate this season is the second lowest of his career. He’s gone under in 66.7 percent of his starts, so his implied odds are -200, and given the matchup, they should be priced much closer to that.

Tony Gonsolin Over 2.5 Runs Allowed (+105)
San Diego vs. Los Angeles 10:10 pm ET

Gonsolin is due for some regression in this second half as his FIP is over a run higher than his ERA. We’ve already seen how explosive this revamped Padres lineup can be. All lefties have a good history against Gonsolin and will have a significant splits advantage as his FIP at home against lefties is 3.85. Expect the Padres to put some runs up early.

CTAs


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