Let’s check out our top odds and pick for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night between Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill.
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Betting Profile: Thiago Santos (22-10-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-L-L-L)
One of the few fighters on the planet to push Jon Jones to the brink in a 2019 title fight (split decision), the result was the first loss of a slide where Santos has now lost four of five, most recently to Magomed Ankalaev in March.
From a metric standpoint, Santos has edges in both grappling and striking defense.
Betting Profile: Jamahal Hill (10-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-D)
Winner of two straight since losing to Paul Craig in June of 2021, Hill has ended three of his last four inside of two rounds via KO/TKO and has thus far shown a complete lack of ground game. While that might not be a concern here, Santos would be wise to press the issue, as Hill has yet to record a takedown or submission since joining the UFC.
Hill has a sizeable edge in striking, with nearly double the significant strikes landed per minute and 50% more knockdowns per 15 minutes.
A closer look at Santos’ losses shows that in addition to the recent loss against a title prospect in Ankalaev, Santos’ losses have also come against a recent champ in Glover Teixeira and contender Aleksandar Rakic. While Hill’s striking might win out, I have this fight much closer to even, as Santos is still a fighter that can win in the UFC despite the one killer after another he’s been dealt as of late.
Best Bet: Thiago Santos (+220 via DraftKings)
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