UFC 263: Jamahal Hill vs Paul Craig Picks, Odds, Predictions

Paul Craig and Jamahal Hill fight Saturday in UFC 263 at the Gila River Arena. Craig enters this fight with a 14-4-1 record and has won 86 percent of his fights by submission. Hill enters this fight with a 8-0 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. 

Craig has won five of his last eight fights and is coming off a November win over Mauricio Rua. He is averaging 2.40 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Craig is averaging 2.11 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 26 percent. 

Craig is coming off a second round knockout win at UFC 255 where he landed 54 total strikes. He’s now produced finishes in all 14 of his victories and he looks for three straight wins for the first time since 2015-16.

There’s no surprises with Craig, as he’s a brown belt in BJJ and wants a fight on the ground. Craig has produced submissions in 12 of his 14 victories, six of which have been decided via triangle choke. Craig has just enough accurate striking to set up his takedowns and usually keeps the fight on the canvas once he gets it there.

He has very good guard, is comfortable fighting from his back and has seen just one career decision. Thirteen of Craig’s 19 total fights have ended in submissions. This will be Craig’s first career fight in Arizona.

Hill has won three of his last four fights and is coming off a December win over Ovince Saint Preux. He is averaging 7.90 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Hill is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. 

Hill is coming off a knockout win at UFC Vegas 16 where he landed 68 total strikes. He has now produced knockouts in three of his last four victories. 

Hill is a tricky southpaw striker with a 79-inch reach and has been very accurate with his strikes under the UFC banner. A blue belt in BJJ, Hill could improve his takedown defense and needs to get better on the ground overall. However, Hill does have enough scrambling ability to survive the ground. 

Hill is a late bloomer at 30 years old, but he’s a scrappy fighter who likes his chances standing up. This will be Hill’s first career fight in Arizona.

Craig has a shot to win this fight when you factor in Hill’s questionable at best takedown defense. Craig should be able to get the fight where he wants it and may have me able to drag Hill into deep waters. However, everywhere else, Hill should like his chances. I’m just not all that high on Craig overall and don’t trust him against above-average fighters if we’re being honest. 

I’ll side with Hill, and I’ll predict a decision to lower the juice.

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