We are in Glendale, Arizona this week for UFC 263. This week’s card will feature two title fights with the Middleweight title featuring as the Main Event.
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Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +564. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 263 predictions for the full 14-fight card.
Belal Muhammed Money Line (-225)
Belal Muhammed comes into this fight 9-3 in the UFC, most recently seeing his fight with Leon Edwards be declared a no contest due to an eye poke. Muhammed is averaging 4.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43 percent. He is absorbing 4.02 strikes and has a striking defense of 60 percent. His grappling is very good as well, averaging 1.97 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of only 28 percent, but his takedown defense is 85 percent.
Muhammed will look to take the next step in his career by beating one of the UFC veterans. He has a much higher striking output and has been able to stop takedowns majority of the time. Demian Maia is clearly on the back end of his career, so I will just back Muhammed to win.
Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill Fight to go the Distance – No (-275)
Jamahal Hill comes into this fight 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Ovince Saint Preux by TKO/KO back in December of 2020. He is averaging 7.90 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52 percent. He is absorbing 3.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 49 percent.
Paul Craig comes into this fight 6-4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Mauricio Rua by TKO/KO. Craig is averaging 2.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49 percent. He is absorbing 2.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 43 percent. Craig will likely want to grapple here, averaging 2.11 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 26 percent and a takedown defense of 55 percent.
Both of these fighters tend to be excellent finishers. Two of Hill’s three UFC fights have ended inside the distance and 10 of Craig’s 11 UFC fights have done the same. Craig has shown he can win by TKO/KO or submission, while Hill has tremendous knockout power. For that reason, I will look for this fight to end inside the distance.
Brad Riddell Money Line (+125)
Brad Riddell comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-1. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Alex Da Silva by unanimous decision back in September of 2020. Riddell is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50 percent. He is absorbing 2.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 53 percent. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Riddell has been very impressive so far in his UFC career. His striking seems to be a little better and Drew Dober does not seem to be great on the ground. I actually like Riddell in this spot to stay perfect in the UFC and will back him as an underdog.
Pannie Kianzad Money Line (-200)
Pannie Kianzad comes into this fight 3-2 in the UFC, having won three fights in a row. Her most recent win came against Sijara Eubanks back in December of 2020. This was a win by unanimous decision. Kianzad is averaging 5.14 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 49 percent. She is absorbing 3.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 57 percent.
Kianzad will be looking to extend her win streak to four fights, and I think she can get the job done here. Her striking looks to be the difference, so I will be backing her to win.
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