UFC Vegas 26: Alex Morono vs Donald Cerrone Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Donald Cerrone and Alex Morono fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 26 at the UFC Apex.

Donald Cerrone enters this fight with a 36-15-2 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. Cerrone has split his last 20 fights and is coming off a September no contest against Niko Price. Cerrone is averaging 4.43 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Cerrone is averaging 1.19 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Cerrone is coming off a no contest at UFC Vegas 11, a bout that he originally lost after eating 167 total strikes, but the bout was overturned after Price tested positive for marijuana. Either way, Cerrone is still looking for his first victory since UFC on ESPN+ 9, which was two years ago. Cerrone is a versatile fighter who is a well decorated kick boxer, has a deep background in Muay Thai and is comfortable on the canvas to the point he has 17 career submission victories. A total of 27 of Cerrone’s 36 victories have come by some sort of stoppage and he’s had just one decision victory since UFC 187. A polished wrestler who almost always has the edge on the canvas, Cerrone closes range well with those leg kicks and usually gets the fight where he wants it. A tough fighter who never backs down from the competition, Cerrone’s work rate and willingness to take on whomever is why he’s one of the more popular fighters in the sport. However, at now 38 years old and with the losses piling up, it’s fair to question if we’re quickly seeing the end of Cerrone. This will be Cerrone’s 14th career fight in Las Vegas.

Alex Morono enters this fight with a 18-7-1 record and has won 33 percent of his fights by submission. Morono has won five of his last eight fights and is coming off a December loss to Anthony Pettis. Morono is averaging 4.96 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Morono is averaging 0.44 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Morono is coming off a decision loss at UFC Vegas 17 where he ate 80 total strikes and landed just 50 total strikes of his own. Morono now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, and he’s taking this fight on six days notice, as he replaces Diego Sanchez. Morono has black belts in BJJ and Taekwondo, and he has some pop in his standup striking that can not be ignored. However, Morono does some of his best work on the ground where he has six career submission victories and is aggressive fighting off his back. Morono can reverse position with the best of them and three of his submission victories have come by armbar. This will be Morono’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

Even with him on short rest, Morono and the plus money is worth a look here, as he’s the younger, more athletic fighter and his high level BJJ allows him to hang with Cerrone no matter where the fight goes. With that said, we’ve seen a lot of fighters recently take fights on short notice and it usually doesn’t end well. If there was ever a fight for Cerrone to end the drought, it would probably be this one. Even though he may be past his prime, Cerrone isn’t the type of fighter you just take with little time to prepare.

Give me Cerrone and the cheap price.

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