Gladbach vs. Manchester City Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-335|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings.|
Congratulations to Borussia Mönchengladbach for making the Round of 16 in the Champions League. Thirteen years ago, Gladbach earned promotion back into the Bundesliga. Now, look at how far the Foals have come!
Gladbach’s prize, though? A matchup with a team that is, quite simply, unbeatable at the moment.
Manchester City rightfully enter this contest as the heavy favorite and will likely to take care of a business against an out-of-form Gladbach team.
Let’s try to find betting value in backing Manchester City.
Thus far, the Foals have been unable to build off a fourth-place finish in the German top flight last season, currently sitting eighth on the table through 22 fixtures.
Gladbach ranks eighth out of 18 Bundesliga clubs in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) at +4.33, according to Understat, and it’s near the middle of the pack in both goals scored and allowed at the moment.
The biggest difference from last season is a lack of goals from French attackers Alassane Plea and Marcus Thuram. Each player has three goals and an assist in the league action this season, which is a far cry from their combined 20 goals and 18 assists last campaign.
That 2019-20 campaign saw Gladbach finish third in NPxGD, while scoring the fourth-most goals and conceding the third fewest overall. The Foals finished the season with three consecutive wins to finish two points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen in fourth place, ensuring a spot in this European competition.
The highlight of Gladbach’s season thus far was escaping a UCL group with three quality sides in it: Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Inter Milan.
While Gladbach had two draws and two losses in its games against Real and Inter, a convincing pair of victories over Shakhtar got the club to eight points, which were good enough to advance.
This matchup against one of Europe’s best could not come at a worse time for Gladbach. The Foals are winless in their last four games, including a 2-1 loss to Mainz on Saturday.
Simply put, the Cityzens are the best club team in the world right now.
Pep Guardiola’s footballing machine has won its last 13 games in the Premier League, with a goal difference of 32-3 during their impressive streak. On the season, Manchester City has a plus-35 goal difference through 25 league games, and expected goals (xG) data says it’s clearly the class of the league.
Manchester City’s non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) this season is 32.79, which is tops in England’s top flight. That is more than double Chelsea, which is second at 15.73 in the same category.
Bad news for future opponents of the Cityzens: Kevin De Bruyne is back in the starting lineup. With De Bruyne having returned, Phil Foden was relegated to the bench, although that could have been just part of squad rotation during a busy run of fixtures.
The backline has found its four in front of goalkeeper Ederson. From left to right: Oleksandr Zinchecnko, Ruben Dias, John Stones and Joao Cancelo are all thriving at the moment. Dias is going to be in the running to be named the league’s player of the season, having enjoyed an incredible debut campaign after his move to Manchester City from Benfica last September.
Betting Analysis & Picks
If Manchester City scores the first goal, I see a similar game to Sunday’s matchup with Arsenal taking place. Gladbach will get the ball into attacking positions at times, but I don’t anticipate them breaking through.
What I do anticipate is the Cityzens to score and break through past Gladbach goalkeeper Yann Sommer, though. It’s just a matter of how many times that happens.
In their last six games, Manchester City has scored more than three goals just once. Assuming the Cityzens get the first goal, I see this one staying under 3.5 goals. Manchester City hasn’t been playing in goal fests this season. They do what they need to do going forward while shutting down the opposition.
So to find value, I’m going to parlay Manchester City’s moneyline at -335 odds with under 3.5 goals at -155 odds. That gets you to +130 on DraftKings.
Pick: Parlay — Manchester City ML (-335) and Under 3.5 goals (-155)