Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Facundo Campazzo, Deandre Ayton Highlight Top Plays (June 9)

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Denver Nuggets standout Faccundo Campazzo.

We remain in stellar form after another 3-0 day on Tuesday, so let’s see if we can keep things going on Wednesday’s NBA playoff slate.

There’s only one game on the card, with the Phoenix Suns up 1-0 in their series with the Denver Nuggets. Will Barton is doubtful to return, but getting closer to action and now Michael Porter Jr.’s status is up in the air with back tightness.

You know the old saying: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it? Well, our props are 31-7 now for the postseason, with an 82% hit rate and a 55% return on investment. We’re going right back to the well on two of our three props we just played for easy wins in Game 1 of this series.

For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Facundo Campazzo — Over 4.5 Assists (+118)

Nuggets vs. Suns Suns -5.5
Time | TV 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Best Book FanDuel

Have we decided yet whether Campazzo is Argentinian Matthew Dellavedova or Argentine Patrick Beverley? I still lean toward Dellavedova, but I go back and forth every game.

Either way, Campazzo is an absolute pest and the kind of player you love to death if he’s on your side or totally despise if you’re against him. Campazzo is tiny but mighty, going full speed at every second. He’s disruptive as a pesky defender and a pro’s pro on offense, a rookie in name only as a 30-year-old white has played professionally for more than a decade.

With Denver so shorthanded, that level of competence has elevated Campazzo into significant minutes, mostly because he has a high floor, plays hard and makes smart decisions. The Nuggets are still missing Jamal Murray and P.J. Dozier, so they’re down three of their top five guards, leaving Campazzo, Austin Rivers and Monte Morris to soak up most of the minutes.

Campazzo played more than 30 minutes each of the first three games against Portland, but saw his time on the court cut short in Game 4 and then was minimized in Games 5 and 6, mostly because Morris was on fire and Denver needed his and Rivers’ shooting on the floor.

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However, in Game 1 against Phoenix, Campazzo played more than 36 minutes and was terrific, racking up 14 points, four rebounds and six assists.

Campazzo has averaged 10.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 5.3 assists so far in the playoffs, and those numbers go up even further if you remove the low-minute Games 5 and 6 appearances. He’s averaging 6.4 APG in his other five playoff games and recording an assist every 5.4 minutes, an even better rate than his one per 6.1 minutes in the regular season.

That makes sense since Campazzo is playing with the starters, and that means more time sharing the court with scorers like Porter and Nikola Jokić. Campazzo has also had at least two steals in all five of those higher-minute games, which leads to run outs and easy assist opportunities since all of Campazzo’s teammates have more athleticism and finishing ability.

Add it all up, and we’re in a good spot to get to five assists. Campazzo is a perfect 5 for 5 hitting the over in those higher minute games so far these playoffs, and we’re getting plus juice. Let’s hope he stays perfect and play this at any plus number.

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Deandre Ayton — Over 15.5 Points (-105)

Nuggets vs. Suns Suns -5
Time | TV 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Best Book BetMGM

Deandre Ayton was a beast in Game 1 and we benefited from the fruits of his labor.

Ayton had 20 points and 10 rebounds, basically matching Jokić bucket for bucket and somewhat neutralizing the MVP with an outstanding game. Ayton was terrific defensively, committing just one foul. He routinely hurt the Nuggets as a massive role man at the rim, with Chris Paul and Devin Booker slicing through Denver’s defense masterfully in the pick-and-roll.

We played Ayton’s points over in Game 1 successfully, and we’re going back to the well, because the books haven’t adjusted enough. In Game 1, we had Ayton at over 13.5 points, and I noted at the time the line was so low I did a triple-take and expected it to move up by the end of the series. Well, that line ended up rising to 14.5 by tip and now it’s at 15.5, but there’s still some value there.

Ayton averaged 15.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. He was also at 14.4 PPG and 10.5 RPG during the regular season. That makes it look like the number is about right now, but Ayton is up from 30.6 minutes per game in the regular season to over 36 in the postseason and will clearly play against Jokić as much as he can.

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Besides, Ayton scored at least 21 points in each of the first three Lakers games before going quieter toward the end of the series when Phoenix was already rolling along.

Ayton has played four times against Denver this season. He scored 22, 27, and 17 in three regular-season games, then 20 in the series opener against Denver. So, he’s averaged 21.5 points and 11.7 rebounds in four games.

Our Props Tool actually prefers to play Ayton’s combo points plus rebounds over, but I’m staying away from the rebounds. I played that over in Game 1 and watched in horror as Ayton went the entire fourth quarter without one final rebound. Jokić played most of the second half at the top of the arc, pulling Ayton away from the rim and removing many of his rebounding opportunities.

I’ll just stick with the points, which should continue to be there. The margin isn’t quite as strong as Game 1, when I bet two units, but it’s still in our favor enough to play again. I’ll take it up to -130 odds.

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Mikal Bridges — Over 1.5 Assists (-144)

Nuggets vs. Suns Suns -5.5
Time | TV 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Best Book FanDuel

Remember, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We played this exact prop in Game 1 and earned an easy win with five assists, so we’re going back again.

Bridges was a star for Phoenix in the opener, collection 23 points, five rebounds and five assists as one of the big stories of the night. Bridges made four 3-pointers — a playoff high for him — and had a lot more time on the ball. Turns out life is a bit easier when you’re not spending the whole series trying to defend LeBron James.

Bridges only averaged 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game against the Lakers in the first round, but he has had far more success against Denver this season. In four games against the Nuggets, he’s sitting at 18.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game on the year.

After struggling against a tough Lakers defense, it was easy to see how much easier life was for Bridges in Game 1. There are more passing lanes, back cuts and transition opportunities playing Denver, plus he’s spending a more time on the ball instead of being reduced to a spot-up shooter.

Bridges played every regular-season game, amassing multiple assists in 46 of them. That means he hit this over total more than 64% of the time. Even in a quiet series against Los Angeles, he still had multiple assists in three of six game and is now a perfect 4 for 4 to the over against Denver this year.

Like with Ayton, this line is creeping up a bit, but there’s still some value there. I’ll play it while we can and ride to -170 if needed.

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