Playing in his home state and at his favorite course, Max Homa (50/1) took home his second career title in a thrilling playoff win over Tony Finau at the Genesis Invitational. Homa made a spectacular chip on the first hole of the playoff to save par and showed some great resilience at Riviera Country Club all week. It was bittersweet for the 30-year-old, who was very emotional after receiving the trophy from Tiger Woods.
The first WGC of the calendar year is typically played in Mexico, but due to the ongoing pandemic, the event has been moved to Florida and has been renamed the WGC-Workday Championship. While there are a lot of unknowns about the Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Florida, there will be no shortage of firepower. An uber-talented field of 72 players will tee it up in this no-cut event for the first WGC of the year.
Once again, Dustin Johnson (+600) is the betting favourite coming off another top-10 performance at the Genesis Invitational. Jon Rahm (+850), Xander Schauffele (+1400), Rory McIlroy (+1600) round out the top-five. Coming off of missed cuts last week at Riviera, Justin Thomas (+1800) and Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) will look to right the ship.
- 2020: Patrick Reed
- 2019: Dustin Johnson
- 2018: Phil Mickelson
- 2017: Dustin Johnson
- 2016: Adam Scott
Concession Country Club in Bradenton, Florida, is a Jack Nicklaus design that measures at 7,474 yards and will play as a par 72. As per any Nicklaus course, emphasis on strong approach play and savvy around the green game is a must. The Bermuda greens at Concession are said to be tricky and undulating. While there is no course history to go off, this course has hosted a Ryder Cup match in 2006 and played host to Big 10 match play in both 2012 and an NCAA Championship in 2015. Bryson DeChambeau won the individual title at this course, edging out C.T. Pan at eight-under-par.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-green
- Putting on Bermuda greens
Outright Betting Picks
Tyrrell Hatton (+1800 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Hatton returns to the Sunshine State for the first time since his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March of 2020. This will mark his first event on the PGA Tour this season since the RSM Classic in November, but he has been playing exceptionally well on the Euro tour of late. Hatton won the Abu Dhabi Championship in January and has had a T6 at the Saudi International ever since. The Englishman’s game should set up very well for the Concession golf course. His approach play is exceptional (4th on tour last year), and he is a proven winner on difficult courses.
Webb Simpson (+2900 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is a good number for one of the best putters on Bermuda greens on Tour. Both of the 35-year-old’s wins in 2020 came on Bermuda grass (Waste Management Pheonix Open, RSM Classic). He is off to another tremendous start to 2021 with six top-25 showings in eight outings. Simpson is as accurate as anyone off the tee and great with his irons, a combo that will get him in little trouble on a course that is supposed to play difficult this week.
Mid-Tier Betting Picks
Cam Smith (+4500 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
It has become no secret that Cam Smith can compete in the strongest of fields. Some of his most impressive performances of late include a T2 at the Masters in November and a fourth-place finish at a stacked Genesis Invitational field last week in California. He will now head to a course in Florida that plays similar to set-ups he grew up playing in Australia, so he should be able to carry the momentum over. He is a brilliant around-the-green player and has no problem if the winds pick up again.
Justin Rose (+5500 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Another nice number for a recent world number one ranked player. Rose seems to have figured out some things on the European Tour of late. Rose underwent some equipment changes in 2020 and disappointed with only two top-10 showings in 13 events. While he hasn’t been on the PGA Tour scene of late, he is coming off of a runner-up finish at the Saudi International a few weeks ago. The Englishman has always been a brilliant ball-striker who has the irons and putter to go low any time he tees it up.
Other Betting Picks
Jon Rahm – Top-5 Finish (+180 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rahm has finished inside the top-25 in all eight of his starts in 2020/21. High finishes include a T2, a T5, and three T7’s. The world number two ranked golfer is on a magical run and is very close to the winner’s circle once again. It’s a cold putter that has prevented the Spaniard from that next level, which is uncharacteristic from Rahm, who ranked 22nd in strokes gained: putting last year.
Viktor Hovland – Top-10 Finish (+210 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
There are very few golfers as hot as Hovland right now. The talented Norweigan had a T5 finish at the Genesis Invitational, and a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open his previous outing. He has also been very impressive on the European Tour of late, as he has a T6 and a T3 to his name in the last three months.
- Carlos Ortiz over Robert Macintyre (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Top Asian Player – Sungjae Im (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Justin Rose over Hideki Matsuyama (+124 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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